The traditional approach to sectoral trade analysis is to examine the pattern, volume and value of international trade. This approach, however, is difficult for the international air transport sector, due to the paucity of data and the complexity of the industry. For example, data on the number of passengers transported from one country to another can be recorded as an import or an export, depending on the origin of the passengers and the nationality of the company that transports them. Furthermore, the expenditures of the passengers in the country where they disembark can also have balance of payments implications. Consequently, direct and indirect expenditures can be classified according to a number of categories, creating an estimation problem.Despite these limitations, the available data on the characteristics and performance of the industry are indicative of the kinds of results that one would obtain if a full set of trade data was available. This Section, therefore, adopts a more general approach by using generic air transport data to identify the broad linkages between the industry and international trade patterns.
(a)Output and performance of the industryThe performance of the air transport industry depends on the same broad factors that determine economic performance. These include growth in gross domestic product (GDP), growth in international trade in goods and services, and growth in other industries that use air travel as a mode to transport cargo and people. In this context, the sustained economic growth experienced by the world economy in the past two decades and the strong performance of international trade has translated into a strong positive trend for international traffic.Industry specific factors are also important in determining performance. Here, the air transport industry is no different from other industries -exogenous shocks can exert positive and negative effects on its performance. Events such as those that occurred on 11 September 2001 are an example of how an external event can have significant consequences for the industry. Similarly, the rapid rise of the use of the internet, especially for direct business to customer contact, is another example.Chart 1 captures the overall economic performance of the industry during the past 40 years, using a number of indicators. First, overall traffic in the industry, as measured in tonne kilometres performed (TKPs) has increased steadily. 3 The only two exceptions are in 1991 and 2001. Second, real yields have been declining as revenues over expenses have been static. Taken together, these two indicators, suggest that the financial performance of the industry has been fairly static in absolute terms and declining when measured in logs as in the Chart. This weak performance is against a backdrop of increases in costs of inputs, such as fuel and labour, and productivity gains.A broader set of performance indicators, for a more recent time period and specifically for international travel are presented in Table 1. These data show that internationa...