Comparison of Weighted Moving Average Method with Double Exponential Smoothing in Estimating Production of Oil Palm Fruit

Anggraini, Putri Nur; Amin, Muhammad; Marpaung, Nasrun

doi:10.47065/bits.v4i2.2066

Cited by 1 publication

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…The overview plot of the datasets. Frontiers in Public Health 09 frontiersin.org (47), Gaussian function method (48) and polynomial functions method (48):…”

Section: Baseline Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three widely used neural network architectures; LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit), CNN-LSTM and a statistical method, were chosen as the control group in this study, the statistical methods include, weighted moving average method(WMA) ( 47 ), Gaussian function method ( 48 ) and polynomial functions method ( 48 ):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…weighted moving average method (WMA) ( 47 ): the weighted moving average (WMA) method is a time series analysis technique that assigns different weights to historical observations based on their relative importance. Unlike the simple moving average (SMA) method, which assigns equal weight to all observations, the WMA method seeks to accentuate the impact of more recent data and reduce the impact of older data points.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating gated recurrent unit in graph neural network to improve infectious disease prediction: an attempt

Liu,

Hou,

Xie

et al. 2024

Front. Public Health

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ObjectiveThis study focuses on enhancing the precision of epidemic time series data prediction by integrating Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) into a Graph Neural Network (GNN), forming the GRGNN. The accuracy of the GNN (Graph Neural Network) network with introduced GRU (Gated Recurrent Units) is validated by comparing it with seven commonly used prediction methods.MethodThe GRGNN methodology involves multivariate time series prediction using a GNN (Graph Neural Network) network improved by the integration of GRU (Gated Recurrent Units). Additionally, Graphical Fourier Transform (GFT) and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) are introduced. GFT captures inter-sequence correlations in the spectral domain, while DFT transforms data from the time domain to the frequency domain, revealing temporal node correlations. Following GFT and DFT, outbreak data are predicted through one-dimensional convolution and gated linear regression in the frequency domain, graph convolution in the spectral domain, and GRU (Gated Recurrent Units) in the time domain. The inverse transformation of GFT and DFT is employed, and final predictions are obtained after passing through a fully connected layer. Evaluation is conducted on three datasets: the COVID-19 datasets of 38 African countries and 42 European countries from worldometers, and the chickenpox dataset of 20 Hungarian regions from Kaggle. Metrics include Average Root Mean Square Error (ARMSE) and Average Mean Absolute Error (AMAE).ResultFor African COVID-19 dataset and Hungarian Chickenpox dataset, GRGNN consistently outperforms other methods in ARMSE and AMAE across various prediction step lengths. Optimal results are achieved even at extended prediction steps, highlighting the model’s robustness.ConclusionGRGNN proves effective in predicting epidemic time series data with high accuracy, demonstrating its potential in epidemic surveillance and early warning applications. However, further discussions and studies are warranted to refine its application and judgment methods, emphasizing the ongoing need for exploration and research in this domain.

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“…The overview plot of the datasets. Frontiers in Public Health 09 frontiersin.org (47), Gaussian function method (48) and polynomial functions method (48):…”

Section: Baseline Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%