Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Climate change is supposed to remarkably affect the water resources of coastal lagoons as they are highly vulnerable to changes occurring at their catchment and/or ocean or sea boundaries. Probable impacts of projected climate changes on catchment hydrology and freshwater input were assessed using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for the drainage areas of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine) and Vistula Lagoon (Poland/Russia) under a set of 15 climate scenarios covering the time period until the year 2100. Climate change signals for all regions show continuously increasing trends in temperature, but various trends in precipitation. Precipitation is projected to decrease in two catchments on the Iberian Peninsula and increase in the Baltic region catchment, and does not show a clear trend in the catchment located near the Black Sea. The average projected changes in freshwater inputs reflect these changes in climate conditions, but often show variability between the scenarios, in future periods, and within the catchments. According to the individual degrees of water management influences in the four drainage basins, the climate sensitivity of river inflows is differently pronounced in each.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling

“…Moreover, most scenarios show a potential reduction in discharge in spring, accompanied by a shift of the spring peak to earlier months. The similar trends in seasonal dynamics were found in the study ofČerkasova et al and Hesse et al [13,55] with increases to the river discharge in winter and decreases in spring as a result of temperature rises. Additionally, in some cases the maximum spring discharges take place earlier.…”

New Strategies to Improve Co-Management in Enclosed Coastal Seas and Wetlands Subjected to Complex Environments: Socio-Economic Analysis Applied to an International Recovery Success Case Study after an Environmental Crisis

“…The range of maximum thresholds of WTP obtained with the non-parametric Turnbull method allows us to assume the two mixed PPP models proposed in the parametric method are viable. These results are consistent with those obtained in similar problems in other cases of major environmental crises in developed countries [10,37], but they do present differences that may be understood as advances in the field for smaller cases [72,73] or in countries with lower environmental demands [74].…”

Long-Term GIS Analysis of Seaside Impacts Associated to Infrastructures and Urbanization and Spatial Correlation with Coastal Vulnerability in a Mediterranean Area

“…The Mar Menor, La Manga and its neighboring coastal territory have long been a common object of social and scientific controversy. As mentioned before, there are numerous studies in the scientific bibliography related to the Mar Menor [57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64] and the problems derived from its unique configuration and high environmental value. Most of them converge in associating the environmental impacts of the territory individually, mainly with the intensive urbanization of the coastal perimeter, the construction of marine infrastructures and the anthropization of the environment with actions such as intensive agriculture or the artificial widening of the "golas".…”