Comparison of the forecasting results of Black Sea surface temperature obtained in the FSBSI MHI and Copernicus marine environment monitoring service

Abstract

The paper considers the matters of numerical modelling and forecast estimation accu-racy of sea surface temperature in the two monitoring and forecasting centers of the Black Sea – in Federal State Budget Scientific Institution «Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS» (FSBSI MHI) and Copernicus marine environment monitoring service. The CTD (Conductivity Temper-ature Depth) profiling data of in situ measurements from research vessel “Professor Vod-yanitskiy” were used to solve the problem. Spatial and temporal mismatch between the model data and in situ measurements was eliminated to form a joint sample of these two data sources. Comparison was performed for the time period from October 2017 to September 2018 and showed that the forecasting results of sea water temperature in FSBSI MHI are more reliable than in Copernicus marine service for all forecast terms.