Comparison of gridded precipitation datasets for rainfall-runoff and inundation modeling in the Mekong River Basin

Try, Sophal; Tanaka, Shigenobu; Tanaka, Kenji; Sayama, Takahiro; Oeurng, Chantha; Sovannara, Uk; Takara, Kaoru; Hu, Maochuan; Han, Dawei

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0226814

Cited by 54 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(42 reference statements)

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“…To evaluate the performance of annual maximum inundation, the threshold of inundation depth of 0.5 m was selected following previous studies (Sayama et al, 2012, 2015; Try et al, 2020; Try, Lee, Yu, et al, 2018) to identify the flooded and non‐flooded areas. The statistic indices of observation and model prediction flood extent for 8 years (2000–2007) were calculated (see Figure 4 for the comparison map of simulation and observation).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The topographic information was derived from the MERIT DEM (Yamazaki et al, 2017) by scaling up from 3‐arc second (~90 m) to 5‐arc minute (~10 km) for the whole MRB simulation and 60‐arc second (~2 km) for the LMB. Try et al (2020) suggested that the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) product is suitable for long‐term hydrological modelling in the MRB. Therefore GPCC precipitation was used for long‐term verification in this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The river cross‐section parameters, river width W (m) and depth D (m), were calculated from Equations () and () validated by Try, Lee, Yu, Oeurng, and Jang (2018b) as a function of upstream area A (km 2 ). Try et al (2020) have calibrated and validated the RRI model for 8 years (2000–2007) in the MRB. This study used the validated RRI model for flood inundation simulation (1983–2010) to confirm the capability of the model for long‐term simulation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To evaluate the performance of annual maximum inundation, the threshold of inundation depth of 0.5 m was selected following previous studies (Sayama et al, 2012(Sayama et al, , 2015Try et al, 2020;Try, Lee, Yu, et al, 2018) revealed that 3-month precipitation (90 days) had the highest correlation (R 2 = .81) for both peak discharge and inundation volume. Consequently, the 90-day precipitation was hereafter used for further analysis of the projected future precipitation change.…”

Section: Long-term Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Projection of extreme flood inundation in the Mekong River basin under 4K increasing scenario using large ensemble climate data

Try

Tanaka

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future precipitation and flooding is critical for the development of social infrastructure under climate change. The Mekong River is among the world's large-scale rivers severely affected by climate change. This study aims to define the duration of precipitation contributing to peak floods based on its correlation with peak discharge and inundation volume in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). We assessed the changes in precipitation and flood frequency using a large ensemble Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF). River discharge in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) and flood inundation in the LMB were simulated by a coupled rainfall-runoff and inundation (RRI) model. Results indicated that 90-day precipitation counting backward from the day of peak flooding had the highest correlation with peak discharge (R 2 = .81) and inundation volume (R 2 = .81). The ensemble mean of present simulation of d4PDF (1951-2010) showed good agreement with observed extreme flood events in the LMB. The probability density of 90-day precipitation shifted from the present to future climate experiments with a large variation of mean (from 777 to 900 mm) and SD (from 57 to 96 mm). Different patterns of sea surface temperature significantly influence the variation of precipitation and flood inundation in the LMB in the future (2051-2110). Extreme flood events (50-year, 100-year, and 1,000-year return periods) showed increases in discharge, inundation area, and inundation volume by 25%-40%, 19%-36%, and 23%-37%, respectively.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Long-term Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projection of extreme flood inundation in the Mekong River basin under 4K increasing scenario using large ensemble climate data

Try

Tanaka

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

Self Cite

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“…This can be achieved through imputing missing data [60], interpolating additional stations from gridded data [37], or substituting station data with gridded observations [61]. While there has been a substantial improvement of gridded datasets, few studies to have utilised gridded observations have either supplemented with station data or used coarse resolution gridded datasets [37,61,62]. This study seeks to test the performance of the highresolution (0.05 • ,~5.55 km) Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) [63] and CHIRTS (Temperature) [64] datasets as an alternative to station data in hydrological simulations and utilise them to assess the long-term impacts of LULC on the surface runoff response in a dynamic tropical urban watershed and downscale future climate simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Surface Runoff Response Using Gridded Observations and SWAT+

et al. 2021

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The Anthropocene period is characterised by a general demographic shift from rural communities to urban centres that transform the predominantly wild global landscape into mostly cultivated land and cities. In addition to climate change, there are increased uncertainties in the water balance and these feedbacks cannot be modelled accurately due to scarce or incomplete in situ data. In African catchments with limited current and historical climate data, precise modelling of potential runoff regimes is difficult, but a growing number of model applications indicate that useful simulations are feasible. In this study, we used the new generation of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) dubbed SWAT+ to assess the viability of using high resolution gridded data as an alternative to station observations to investigate surface runoff response to continuous land use change and future climate change. Simultaneously, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Program (CORDEX) and their ensemble were evaluated for model skill and systematic biases and the best performing model was selected. The gridded data predicted streamflow accurately with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.89 in both calibration and validation phases. The analysis results show that further conversion of grasslands and forests to agriculture and urban areas doubled the runoff depth between 1984 and 2016. Climate projections predict a decline in March–May rainfall and an increase in the October–December season. Mean temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.3–1.5 °C under RCP4.5 and about 2.6–3.5 °C under RCP8.5 by 2100. Compared to the 2010–2016 period, simulated surface runoff response to climate change showed a decline under RCP4.5 and an increase under RCP8.5. In contrast, the combine effects of land use change and climate change simulated a steady increase in surface runoff under both scenarios. This suggests that the land use influence on the surface runoff response is more significant than that of climate change. The study results highlight the reliability of gridded data as an alternative to instrumental measurements in limited or missing data cases. More weight should be given to improving land management practices to counter the imminent increase in the surface runoff to avoid an increase in non-point source pollution, erosion, and flooding in the urban watersheds.

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Performance evaluation of reanalysis precipitation products in Egypt using fuzzy entropy time series similarity analysis

Hamed

Nashwan

Shahid

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Selection of suitable gridded precipitation data is deemed for hydroclimatic assessment and climate change impact analysis, especially in regions where long‐term reliable precipitation data is unavailable. A novel approach based on fuzzy entropy similarity analysis (FESA) is proposed to evaluate the performance of four reanalysis gridded precipitation datasets (GPDs) for Egypt, namely European Reanalysis v.5. (ERA5), TerraClimate, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)—Noah Land Surface Model L4 v.2 and Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth's land surface areas (CHELSA), against gauge records. The proposed method was verified using conventional statistics. Besides, the relative performance of different GPDs was verified according to their response to the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) on winter precipitation. The performance of the best reanalysis GPD was also compared with the gauge‐based global precipitation climatology centre (GPCC) dataset to show its reliability. The FESA revealed CHELSA as the best reanalysis GPD for Egypt. The performance assessment of GDPs based on conventional statistical metrics and visual presentation confirms the results obtained using FESA. CHELSA showed significant correlations with NAO (r = 0.3627) and MO (r = 0.624) like that obtained for gauge records. CHELSA also showed a better representation of precipitation in Egypt than GPCC at nearly half of the gauge locations. As CHELSA has a much higher spatial resolution than GPCC, it can be recommended as the proxy of gauge records in Egypt. The FESA can be used for performance analysis of gridded climate data by avoiding the complexities of using multiple statistical metrics.

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Comparison of gridded precipitation datasets for rainfall-runoff and inundation modeling in the Mekong River Basin

Cited by 54 publications

References 36 publications

Projection of extreme flood inundation in the Mekong River basin under 4K increasing scenario using large ensemble climate data

Projection of extreme flood inundation in the Mekong River basin under 4K increasing scenario using large ensemble climate data

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Surface Runoff Response Using Gridded Observations and SWAT+

Performance evaluation of reanalysis precipitation products in Egypt using fuzzy entropy time series similarity analysis

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