Comparison of GCM and RCM simulated precipitation and temperature over Central America and the Caribbean

Vichot‐Llano, Alejandro; Martinez‐Castro, Daniel; Giorgi, Filippo; Bezanilla‐Morlot, Arnoldo; Centella-Artola, Abel

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03400-3

Cited by 17 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The ability of HadG and ENS to reproduce the annual precipitation cycle was evaluated in Vichot‐Llano et al . (2020). In this section, the projected changes in the annual cycle are analysed.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the climate change projections, an ensemble of simulations with these configurations is used, following the methodology of Vichot‐Llano et al . (2020). Henceforth in this paper, the acronym ENS will be used to refer to the ensemble averaged output.…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The convective parameterizations used are the Emanuel scheme (hereafter referred to as EM) (Emanuel, 1991;Stensrud, 2007); a combination of the Emanuel scheme over ocean and the scheme of Grell et al (1994) over land (GE); the Tiedtke (1989) Scheme (TK); and the parameterization of Kain and Fritsch (1989) (KF). For the climate change projections, an ensemble of simulations with these configurations is used, following the methodology of Vichot-Llano et al (2020). Henceforth in this paper, the acronym ENS will be used to refer to the ensemble averaged output.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More specifically, in a recent study, Vichot‐Llano et al . (2020) tested several cumulus parameterizations in RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM2‐ES global model over a Caribbean domain, and identified an ensemble of best performing configurations which were used for 21st century climate projections. The reader is referred to Vichot‐Llano et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reader is referred to Vichot‐Llano et al . (2020) for a thorough assessment of the GCM‐RCM model ensemble performance in reproducing the climate of the region. The same ensemble was then used to produce climate projections over the region for different future time slices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected changes in precipitation and temperature regimes and extremes over the Caribbean and Central America using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4

Vichot‐Llano

Martinez‐Castro²,

Bezanilla‐Morlot

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Regional climate projections are developed four Central America and the Caribbean, based on a multiparameter ensemble formed by four configurations with different convective cumulus schemes with the regional model RegCM4 at 25 km grid spacing, driven by the HadGEM2‐ES global model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The precipitation change projections indicate drier conditions compared to present in the near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) time slices. These drier conditions are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level over the eastern Caribbean, central Atlantic Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean and are more pronounced in the far future time slice. For temperature, the warmer conditions are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level over the study region. The drier and warmer signals are greater in extension and magnitude in the RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature extreme indices show a reduction of consecutive wet days and an increment of consecutive dry days, with a reduction of cold days and nights and an increase of warm days and nights. Lower precipitation along with increased intensity of extreme events are projected over the Greatest Antilles region.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Projected changes in precipitation and temperature regimes and extremes over the Caribbean and Central America using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4

Vichot‐Llano

Martinez‐Castro²,

Bezanilla‐Morlot

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Caribbean Low‐Level Jet future projections using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4 configurations

Vichot‐Llano

Martinez‐Castro

Bezanilla‐Morlot

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A multiparameter ensemble generated by four configurations of the regional model RegCM4 using different cumulus parameterizations and driven by the HadGEM2‐ES global model is used to project changes in the Caribbean wind field, with the focus on the Caribbean Low‐Level Jet (CLLJ). Two scenarios are considered, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The CLLJ shows a strengthening (weakening) during the summer (winter) months compared to present day conditions in both a near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) time slice, with an eastward and northward expansion (contraction) in the core region. The warmer conditions produce an increase in specific humidity and an intensified moisture flux from the lower to the middle atmosphere in correspondence of the jet intensification. This occurs as a result of an expansion (contraction) of the North Atlantic Subtropical High of about +2 hPa (−2 hPa) into the Caribbean. All the changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level with a consensus across all the ensemble members.

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Evolution of high-temperature extremes over the main Euro-Mediterranean airports

et al. 2023

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The increasing intensity and frequency of high-temperature events in response to climate change can potentially impact the aviation industry, since aircraft takeoff and landing performances depend on near-surface air temperature. Previous studies have combined climate data with aircraft technical data to estimate the future impact of rising high temperatures on aircraft takeoff. They found a decrease of maximum takeoff weights and the lengthening of takeoff distances. The Mediterranean region is a climate change “hot spot” area, specially concerned by extreme high-temperatures increase. In this study, the magnitude and trends of the daily maximum near-surface temperature extremes in summer were analysed over major airports in Southwestern Europe. Trends in the period 1961–2014 were analysed from observations and reanalysis. Future changes by 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, with respect to 1961–2005, were analysed from simulations performed with Regional and Global Climate Models (RCMs and GCMs). Before assessing future climate projections, climate models were evaluated in present climate, and the RCM and GCM ensembles were compared to each other. No clear added value was found for RCMs over GCMs in present climate at the airport scale in these terms. GCMs project larger temperature changes than RCMs over the same locations. Multi-model ensemble mean projected changes under the RCP8.5 scenario range between + 1.7 and + 3.2 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ C by the near term, and between + 4.9 and + 8.5 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ C by the long term, across the airports and the RCM and GCM ensembles. This increase of high-temperature extremes would impact airport operations. Adaptation or mitigation policies would become necessary.

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Comparison of GCM and RCM simulated precipitation and temperature over Central America and the Caribbean

Cited by 17 publications

References 58 publications

Projected changes in precipitation and temperature regimes and extremes over the Caribbean and Central America using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4

Projected changes in precipitation and temperature regimes and extremes over the Caribbean and Central America using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4

Caribbean Low‐Level Jet future projections using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4 configurations

Evolution of high-temperature extremes over the main Euro-Mediterranean airports

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