Comparison of Forecasting Violence Cases Number Against Women and Children Using Double Exponential Smoothing (Des) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) Methods

Abstract

Violence is something that is being widely discussed. It is due to the increasing number of victims of violence in a scope where victims should feel safe. Therefore, the researchers took this case intending to predict the number of violence cases against women and children in Jakarta so that the government can anticipate the spike in cases and evaluate the policies that will be issued in this case. The data used was from the Office for the Empowerment of Child Protection and Population Control (DPPAPP) of DKI Jakarta Province from January 2018 to October 2021 to predict the number of cases in 2022. Based on the analysis results, it is known that the number of cases of violence against women and children has decreased throughout 2022. In addition, the accuracy of the model using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method is 44.91%, and the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is 39.03%.