Comparison of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons(STS) score for risk prediction in Indian patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting

Shales, Sufina; Rao, Sukamanchi Uma Maheswara; Khapli, Swanand; Ghorai, Paramita Auddya; Behera, Sukanta Kumar; Ghosh, Arup; Narayan, Pradeep

doi:10.1007/s12055-021-01186-1

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Using 67 demographic and operational parameters, it demonstrates the likelihood of complications and death, but its bulkiness creates inconvenience in use. [29][30][31][32][33] In general, according to the literature, the STS SCORE model has a high degree of evidence and has found its acceptance in risk stratification in a more severe cohort of patients. [29][30][31][32][33] Like Euro SCORE II, STS SCORE is an easy-to-use online calculator (www.sts.org) for predicting postoperative mortality in patients undergoing open heart surgery, but requires more detailed patient data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As with other models, mortality is the main endpoint in the STS SCORE; however, this calculator also determines the likelihood of other adverse events, such as 30-day mortality, neurological deficit, wound infection, prolonged mechanical ventilation, renal failure, reoperation, while in comparison with Euro SCORE II, STS SCORE underestimates the perioperative risk of complications. [29][30][31][32][33] With the publication of the results multicenter randomized study "SYNTAX" (www.syntaxscore.com), which included 1800 patients and based on a comparative assessment of PCI and CABG in patients with multiple occlusive-stenotic changes in the coronary bed, it became possible to assess the severity of the lesion in the coronary basin. [34][35][36][37][38] According to the severity of the lesion, the following gradation is distinguished on the basis of this calculator: low level (≤22 points), intermediate (23-32 points) and severe (≥33 points).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[29][30][31][32][33] In general, according to the literature, the STS SCORE model has a high degree of evidence and has found its acceptance in risk stratification in a more severe cohort of patients. [29][30][31][32][33] Like Euro SCORE II, STS SCORE is an easy-to-use online calculator (www.sts.org) for predicting postoperative mortality in patients undergoing open heart surgery, but requires more detailed patient data. As with other models, mortality is the main endpoint in the STS SCORE; however, this calculator also determines the likelihood of other adverse events, such as 30-day mortality, neurological deficit, wound infection, prolonged mechanical ventilation, renal failure, reoperation, while in comparison with Euro SCORE II, STS SCORE underestimates the perioperative risk of complications.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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CAROTIDSCORE.RU—The first Russian computer program for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy

et al. 2022

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Goal Presentation of the first Russian computer program ( www.carotidscore.ru ) for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy (CEE). Material and methods The present study is based on the analysis of a multicenter Russian database that includes 25,812 patients after CEE operated on from 01/01/2010 to 04/01/2022. The following types of CEE were implemented: 6814 classical CEE with plastic reconstruction of the reconstruction zone with a patch; 18,998 eversion CEE. Results In the hospital postoperative period, 0.18% developed a lethal outcome, 0.14%—myocardial infarction, 0.35%—stroke. The combined endpoint was 0.68%. For each factor present in patients, a predictive coefficient was calculated. The prognostic coefficient was a numerical indicator reflecting the strength of the influence of each factor on the development of postoperative complications. Based on this formula, predictive coefficients were calculated for each factor present in patients in our study. The total contribution of these factors was reflected in “%” and denoted the risk of postoperative complications with a minimum value of 0% and a maximum of 100%. On the basis of the obtained calculations, a computer program CarotidSCORE was created. Its graphical interface is based on the QT framework ( https://www.qt.io ), which has established itself as one of the best solutions for desktop applications. It is possible not only to calculate the probability of developing a complication, but also to save all data about the patient in JSON format (for the patient’s personal card and his anamnesis). The CarotidSCORE program contains 47 patient parameters, including clinical-demographic, anamnestic and angiographic characteristics. It allows you to choose one of the four types of CEE, which will provide an accurate stratification of the risk of complications for each of them in person. Conclusion CarotidSCORE ( www.carotidscore.ru ) is able to determine the likelihood of postoperative complications in patients undergoing CEE.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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CAROTIDSCORE.RU—The first Russian computer program for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy

et al. 2022

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“…The Hosmer-Lemeshow test is one of the most commonly used methods to assess and analyze the discrimination ability of a model by comparing the expected and observed ratios. This test indicates that a model has poor calibration if P > 0.05 5,8 . On the other hand, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis is commonly used to assess sensitivity and specificity based on the Area Under the Curve (AUC) 5,6,9 .…”

Section: Ideal Risk Stratification Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk stratification model in predicting mortality among adult cardiac surgery patients and its application in Indonesia: A review

Ali Mustofa,

Yan Efrata Sembiring,

Pandit Bagus Tri Saputra

2023

World J. Adv. Res. Rev.

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Risk stratification models have become an important tool for predicting mortality among adult cardiac surgery patients. These models provide clinicians with valuable information to guide decision-making and improve patient outcomes. While various models have been developed and validated globally, their application in the Indonesian context has gained attention. This study aims to examine the use of risk stratification models in predicting mortality among adult cardiac surgery patients in Indonesia. Several validated models, including EuroSCORE II, have shown good calibration and discriminative ability in the Indonesian population. EuroSCORE II, in particular, stands out for its efficient use of variables and the ability to predict mortality across different types of cardiac surgeries. However, it is essential to consider other risk stratification models that offer specific strengths and applications relevant to the Indonesian setting. The implementation of these models can greatly assist clinicians in assessing surgical risks, making informed decisions, and optimizing patient care. To further enhance the application of risk stratification models in Indonesia, additional validation studies specific to the Indonesian population are warranted. Furthermore, the establishment of a comprehensive patient database containing cardiac surgery information in Indonesia would facilitate ongoing research and improve the accuracy of model validation. In conclusion, risk stratification models play a crucial role in predicting mortality among adult cardiac surgery patients. Their application in Indonesia shows promising results, particularly with EuroSCORE II. However, further research, validation, and the development of a comprehensive patient database are needed to maximize the effectiveness and applicability of these models in the Indonesian context.

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“…11 Studies examining the validity of EuroSCORE II and STS scores in the Indian population have identified important issues with the accuracy of prediction. 12,13 There is, thus, a need to develop a population-specific risk score for improved risk prediction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine learning algorithms for population-specific risk score in coronary artery bypass grafting

Swamy

Rajagopal

Krishnan

et al. 2023

Asian Cardiovasc Thorac Ann

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Background The aim of this study was to develop a new risk prediction score (NH Score) for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) specific to the Indian population and compare it to the Society of Thoracic Surgeon (STS) Score and the EuroSCORE II. Method The baseline features of adult patients who underwent CABG between the years 2015 and 2021 ( n = 6703) were taken and split into training data (2015–2020; n = 5561) and validation data (2020–2021; n = 1142). The CatBoost algorithm was trained to predict risk scores (NH score), and the performance was tested on the validation set by Precision-Recall Curve and F1 Score. Model calibration was measured by the Brier Score, Expected Calibration Error and Maximum Calibration Error. Results The NH score outperformed both the STS and EuroSCORE II for all outcomes. For mortality, the PR AUC for NH Score was (0.463 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28–0.64]) compared to 0.113 [95% CI, 0.04–0.22] for the STS score and 0.146 [95% CI, 0.06–0.31] for the EuroSCORE II ( p ≪ 0.0001). With respect to morbidity NH Score was superior to the STS score (0.43 [95% CI, 0.33–0.50]) vs. (0.229 [95% CI, 0.18–0.3, p < 0.0001). The observed to the predicted ratio for NH score was superior to the STS Score and similar to EuroSCORE II. NH Score was also more accurate at predicting the risk of prolonged ventilation compared to the STS Score. Conclusion NH score shows an excellent improvement over the performance of STS score and EuroSCORE II for modelling risk predictions for patients undergoing CABG in Indian population. It warrants further validation for larger datasets.

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Comparison of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons(STS) score for risk prediction in Indian patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting

Cited by 7 publications

References 17 publications

CAROTIDSCORE.RU—The first Russian computer program for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy

CAROTIDSCORE.RU—The first Russian computer program for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy

Risk stratification model in predicting mortality among adult cardiac surgery patients and its application in Indonesia: A review

Machine learning algorithms for population-specific risk score in coronary artery bypass grafting

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