Comparison of different approaches to multistage lot sizing with uncertain demand

Abstract

We study a new variant of the classical lot sizing problem with uncertain demand where neither the planning horizon nor demands are known exactly. This situation arises in practice when customer demands arriving over time are confirmed rather lately during the transportation process. In terms of planning, this setting necessitates a rolling horizon procedure where the overall multistage problem is dissolved into a series of coupled snapshot problems under uncertainty. Depending on the available data and risk disposition, different approaches from online optimization, stochastic programming, and robust optimization are viable to model and solve the snapshot problems. We evaluate the impact of the selected methodology on the overall solution quality using a methodology‐agnostic framework for multistage decision‐making under uncertainty. We provide computational results on lot sizing within a rolling horizon regarding different types of uncertainty, solution approaches, and the value of available information about upcoming demands.