Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment

Slovic, Paul; Lichtenstein, Sarah

doi:10.1037/e310492005-001

Cited by 332 publications

(466 citation statements)

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“…Further, an interesting possibility is that expectation ratings, as well as the social information itself, may serve as an anchor from which to adjust when performing pain ratings (Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1971; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). However, high versus low social information also significantly predicted SCR, ruling out that the link between expectancy and pain ratings is purely driven by response biases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond conformity: Social influences on pain reports and physiology.

Koban¹,

Wager²

2016

Emotion

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Social information can profoundly influence behavior, but its effects are often explained in terms of “conformity,” implying effects on decision-making and communication rather than deeper sensory modulation. We examined whether information about other people’s pain reports affected both participants’ pain experience and skin conductance responses (SCR) during pain. Sixty volunteers experienced painful heat stimulation preceded by two kinds of informational cues: (1) non-reinforced social information indicating low or high pain ratings from previous participants; and (2) reinforced conditioned cues (CSlow, CShigh). Both high-pain social information and CShigh cues enhanced pain and SCRs relative to their respective controls, with particularly robust effects of social information. Effects of both manipulations on both pain and SCRs were mediated by trial-by-trial pain expectancies. These results demonstrate strong social influences on pain and autonomic responses, and suggest that expectations from multiple sources can influence pain physiology independent of reinforcement.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond conformity: Social influences on pain reports and physiology.

Koban¹,

Wager²

2016

Emotion

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“…Although there are some exceptions (see , studies employing judgment analysis have generally yielded consistent ®ndings, irrespective of the number and type of decision makers sampled and the nature and content of the judgment tasks studied Libby and Lewis, 1982;Slovic and Lichtenstein, 1971). The main ®ndings are that although over a set of judgments individuals are inconsistent, their judgment policies can be adequately represented by an integration model such as multiple linear regression, that contains only a handful of statistically signi®cant cues.…”

Section: Judgment Analysismentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Researchers continue to paint a complex picture of human judgment and they seem to have overlooked an indication that individuals may be using simple strategies from the regression models themselves. This is the ®nding that usually only a handful of cues (three on average according to Brehmer (1994)) are statistically signi®cant (see Libby and Lewis, 1982;Slovic and Lichtenstein, 1971). A number of explanations for the seemingly`ritualistic' use of regression models have been offered, including that they provide an adequate ®t to data and the tools to apply them are readily available (Stewart, 1988).…”

Section: Implications For Research In Judgment and Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 98%

Bailing and jailing the fast and frugal way

Dhami

Ayton

2001

Behavioral Decision Making

165

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Legal decisions such as the decision to bail upon adjourning a case have major consequences for both defendants and society. In the English system, magistrates, most of whom are lay people, are afforded considerable discretion and must work under constraints such as time pressure. Judgment analysis of the bail decision making policies of 81 magistrates from 44 courts throughout England and Wales revealed intra-and intermagistrate inconsistency in bail decisions, discrepancies between stated and elicited cue use, and high levels of post-decisional con®dence. Furthermore, magistrates' policies were better described and predicted by a fast and frugal model characterized by noncompensatory cue use, than by either of two compensatory integration models. The fast and frugal model portrays a picture of bail decision making that con¯icts with the ideal practice as de®ned by the due process model of justice. We discuss the implications of these ®ndings for judgment and decision making research and criminal justice policy. key words judgment analysis; fast and frugal; legal decision making; bail Decisions made in the criminal justice system are regularly criticized by organizations supporting victims, groups representing defendants and professional agencies such as the prosecution service. Criticism is directed both at existing legal rules and procedures and the individuals who are formally trained to apply them. The motivation for such scrutiny lies in the belief that crime and order are socially constructed and so can be reconstructed, and the realization that legal decisions have consequences for both the public purse and the lives of the public.Past psychological research on legal decision making includes studies investigating particular decisions made by judges (e.g. Ebbesen and Konecni, 1975;Sensibaugh and Allgeier, 1996) and studies of jury decision making (e.g. Klevorick et al., 1984;Pennington and Hastie, 1981). Although both types of research provide scope for challenging and changing existing legal rules and procedures, only the former can also critique the performance of individuals who are formally trained and entrusted to apply them on a regular basis.Many published studies of legal decisions made by judges have tended to focus on decisions made in the American criminal justice system. For example, Ebbesen and Konecni (1975) examined the information

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“…The focus of a statistical reassessment should not be to discard classical methods of inference, but to involve other techniques as the experimental situation warrants. In the latter regard, increasing emphasis has been given recently to the Bayesian approach as an alternative to standard statistical methods (cf, Binder, 1964; Edwards, Lindman, & Savage, 1963; Hays, 1973;Shulman & Elstein, 1975;Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1971). A prime reason for this trend is that Bayesian approaches tend to consider the data accumulated from previous similar experiments and so view the sample at hand as having some previous history.…”

Section: Statistical Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Nonverbal Communication in Teaching

Smith

1979

Review of Educational Research

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The important role played by nonverbal communication in the teaching process *is emphasized. Following a discussion of semantic issues and general nonverbal research, school-related research is reviewed under seven categories of nonverbal communication: environmental factors, proxemics, kinesics, touching behavior, physical characteristics, paralanguage, and artifacts. Characteristics of general educational theory and the process-product paradigm are outlined and the relationship of nonverbal research to these areas is discussed. Finally, several technological and statistical concerns are presented.During the past 15 years, an increasing amount of research has examined the influence of the nonverbal domain on interpersonal communication. Most of this work has been done by anthropologists, communication theorists, and psychologists, and usually the results have been of most immediate interest to those particular disciplines. Increasingly, however, the role of nonverbal communication has also been examined for its significance within educational settings. The main aims of this review are to present the major topics of previous research in the nonverbal domain, to examine studies of nonverbal communication in the classroom, and to outline promising strategies and tactics for future educational research in nonverbal communication.The review will be conducted with several restrictions in mind. First, the literature to be surveyed will place particular emphasis on nonverbal communication in classroom studies of children from kindergarten to grade 13. On occasion, research at the prekindergarten and postsecondary levels will be included when fairly direct implications follow for the elementary or secondary school settings.Second, the review will focus on "normal" subjects in relatively "normal" situations. Accordingly, the vast bodies of literature on nonverbal communication in each of the following areas will not be considered here: (a) autistic or schizophrenic subjects, (b) special education settings, (c) counseling or psychoanalytic situations, and (d) theatrical or dramatic techniques.Some of the topics to be examined in varying detail are cultural differences, use of physical and personal space, body motion and gestures, use of face and eyes, vocal qualitites, and physical characteristics. Pertinent references will be drawn from the disciplines of anthropology, communication, psychology, and sociology as well as from education. Some attention will be given to the currently predominant educational research paradigm and how that paradigm can be related to the study of nonverbal communication in teaching. Finally, some mention will be made of the technological and statistical considerations which may help guide future research in the area. Significance of Nonverbal Communication in TeachingThe important role played by nonverbal communication in any society has been discussed from a variety of perspectives (cf., Argyle, 1975; Hall, 1966Hall, , 1976Harrison & Crouch, 1975;Knapp, 1978;Morris, 1977). For example, Harriso...

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Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment

Cited by 332 publications

References 0 publications

Beyond conformity: Social influences on pain reports and physiology.

Beyond conformity: Social influences on pain reports and physiology.

Bailing and jailing the fast and frugal way

Nonverbal Communication in Teaching

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