Abstract:ObjectivesThis study intends to build and compare two kinds of forecasting models at different time scales for hemorrhagic fever incidence in China.MethodsARIMA and LSTM model were adopted to fit monthly, weekly and daily incidence of hemorrhagic fever in China from 2013 to 2018. The two models, combined and uncombined with rolling forecast, were used to predict the incidence in 2019 to identify its stability and availability. ResultsARIMA (2, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12, ARIMA (1, 1, 3) (1, 1, 1)52 and ARIMA (5, 0, 1) … Show more
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