COMPARISON OF ANALYTIC APPROACHES FOR DETERMINING VARIABLES - A Case Study in Predicting the Likelihood of Sepsis

Abstract

Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is severe. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities.