Comparison between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports

Abstract

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-mm infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (,200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April-September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

Microphysical Characteristics of Overshooting Convection from Polarimetric Radar Observations

“…In addition to the climate impacts associated with overshooting convection, these storms have been shown to be associated with hazardous weather at the surface, such as flooding, hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds, and identification of overshooting tops as a predictor for severe weather has been explored (e.g., Negri 1982;McCann 1983;Brunner et al 2007;Setvák et al 2010;Bedka 2011;Dworak et al 2012). Furthermore, gravity wave generation, breaking, and induced turbulence near the tropopause from overshooting convection are major concerns for aircraft safety and flight planning (e.g., Lane et al 2003;Lane and Sharman 2006;Bedka et al 2010).…”

Daytime identification of summer hailstorm cells from MSG data

“…In fact, Adler et al (1983) found that most storms with this V-shape were related to severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and intense rain). The presence of overshooting clouds confirms strong updrafts within the storm often being associated with hazardous weather (Dworak et al, 2012). These types of clouds can be detected using spatial gradients of 11 µm BTs (Bedka et al, 2010;Bedka, 2011).…”

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

“…Lett. 12 (2017) 074012 Dworak et al (2012) for an overview). The detection of OTs is therefore a relevant proxy for surface impacts of severe thunderstorms.…”