Comparing Uncertainty Visualizations for a Dynamic Decision-Making Task

Abstract

Supporting complex decision making requires conveying relevant information characteristics or qualifiers. The authors tested transparency and numeric annotation for displaying uncertainty about object identity. Participants performed a "missile defense" game in which they decided whether to destroy moving objects (which were either threatening missiles or nonthreatening birds and planes) before they reached a city. Participants were provided with uncertain information about the objects' classifications. Uncertainty was represented through the transparency of icons representing the objects and/or with numeric annotations. Three display methods were created. Icons represented the most likely object classification (with solid icons), the most likely object classification (with icons whose transparency represented the level of uncertainty), or the probability that the icon was a missile (with transparency). In a fourth condition, participants could choose among the representations. Icons either were or were not annotated with numeric probability labels. Task performance was highest when participants could toggle the displays, with little effect of numeric annotation. In conditions in which probabilities were available graphically or numerically, participants chose to engage objects when they were farther from the city and had a lower probability of being a missile. Results provided continued support for the use of graphical uncertainty representations, even when numeric representations are present.

Using Information Trustworthiness Advice in Decision Making

“…These span from the simple approaches utilising colour, shapes and blinking, to the more complex glyphs, contour lines and animation. More recent studies [16,17] have concentrated on evaluating some of these and other visualisation approaches, at times with the aim of supplying general guidance for designers to use. Bisantz et al [16] in particular, identify transparency, brightness and saturation as useful techniques to convey uncertainty provided that background images and the overall task context are considered.…”

Supporting dispatch decisions in interfacility medical transfers: Understanding the roles of uncertainty and reliability

“…However, the presentation of uncertainty information may provide additional benefits to dispatcher decision making. Uncertainty information has been shown to help improve decision making in contexts such as interpreting weather forecasts (Nadav-Greenberg & Joslyn, 2009) and assessing the identity of targets (Bisantz et al, 2011;Neyedli, Hollands, & Jamieson, 2011), resulting in both more accurate and faster decisions. But, users may not always use uncertainty information when it is available.…”

The Perception of Visual UncertaintyRepresentation by Non-Experts

“…1. Various studies have shown that uncertainty visualizations significantly improve user performance [2], [3], [4], [5], enhance user awareness of the inherent prediction uncertainty [6], independent of the expertise level of the user [6], [7], and even when numerical information about the uncertainty is available as well [8].…”