Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator–prey interaction: Simpler works better

Ramakers, Jip J. C.; Gienapp, Phillip; Visser, Marcel E.

doi:10.1111/1365-2656.13143

Cited by 21 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(129 reference statements)

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“…Much of the research on the match-mismatch hypothesis focused on the timing of the consumer peak resource demands, which has to match the timing of the peak resource availability. A more precise measurement of mismatches than this difference in peak phenology would be to measure the temporal overlap between the distributions of demands and availability11,13, but see17. The height of the resource peak will also be of relevance: in years or areas where resources are plentiful it is likely that a (mild) mismatch will not have any negative effects on the consumer.…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

2019

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Climate change has often led to unequal shifts in the seasonal timing (phenology) of interacting species, such as consumers and their resource, leading to phenological ‘mismatches’. Mismatches occur when the time where resource demands of the consumer species are high does not match with the period when this resource is abundant. Here, we review the evolutionary and population consequences of such mismatches and how these depend on other ecological factors, as, for example, additional drivers of selection or density-dependent recruitment. This review puts the research on phenological mismatches into a conceptual framework, applies this framework beyond consumer-resource interactions, and illustrates this framework using examples drawn from the vast body of literature on mismatches. Finally, we point out priority questions for research on this key impact of climate change.

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Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

2019

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“…However, with the exception of oak, caterpillar abundance appeared to be insensitive to the amount of other tree taxa present. The second implication relates to the conservation of consumer populations for whom more resource is expected to be beneficial, though the importance of resource abundance versus resource timing relative to breeding is relatively underexplored (but see Naef-Daenzer & Keller, 1999;Ramakers, Gienapp, & Visser, 2019). The high density of prey in oak woodlands is thought to be a driver of preference for this habitat by some breeding passerines (Perrins, 1979).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Among tree and habitat differences in the timing and abundance of spring caterpillars

Macphie¹,

Samplonius²,

Hadfield³

et al. 2020

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1.Climate warming is causing many spring biological events to advance in timing and where the phenology of resource and consumer advance at different rates this can result in trophic asynchrony. While the temperate study system of deciduous tree – caterpillar – insectivorous passerine has been widely studied, little work has examined whether phenological distribution of caterpillars differ among tree taxa and habitats. If such differences exist they have the potential to underpin spatial variation in the trophic asynchrony in this food web.2.Our first aim was to identify the effects of host tree versus local woodland composition on caterpillar abundance. Following this, the main aim was to examine the effects of tree taxon on the phenological distribution of caterpillar abundance and the trend in mass of individuals, with guild biomass the product of these two metrics. 3.We collected data on caterpillar abundance and mass throughout spring from 44 sites with varied woodland compositions across seven years. First, we analysed differences in caterpillar abundance among tree taxa and identified any additional effect of local woodland composition. Second, we explored differences in the phenological distribution of caterpillars among tree taxa, focusing on caterpillar i) abundance, ii) mass and iii) biomass. 4.We found substantial variation in the caterpillar abundance supported among tree taxa, including evidence that the density of oak foliage within a woodland can increase the abundance of caterpillars found on other trees. Some aspects of the phenological distribution of caterpillars differed among tree taxa, in particular the height of the peak, highest on oak. We show minimal, but significant, variation in timing and duration, whereas we did not find much evidence for variation in the shape of the phenological distribution or mass gain of caterpillars. 5.We show that the abundance and phenological distribution of caterpillars does differ between deciduous trees and that oak is distinct from most other common taxa. Woodland composition is likely to influence the site-level trend in caterpillar abundance and biomass; contributing to spatial variation in an important component of the woodland ecosystem and an ephemeral resource relied upon by many consumers species.

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“…Modelling the demand-resource interaction clarifies the population effects of mismatching Variation in godwit reproductive success at the population level was best explained by our whole demand model of mismatching, although the simpler difference in dates model also performed well. Estimates from overlap and dates models do often correlate (Ramakers et al, 2020), but may perform differently depending on a species' life history and trophic specialization (Miller-Rushing et al, 2010). Thus, while difference in dates models may suffice for godwits and other species with narrow, synchronous, breeding phenologies or those that rely on singular resource pulses (Miller-Rushing et al, 2010), they would likely perform poorly in species with highly variable nest initiation dates or those capable of multiple nesting events (Phillimore et al, 2016).…”

Section: More Than Mistiming: the Tandem Drivers Of Resource Availabimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because overlap models account for the full interaction of consumer demand and resource availability posed in the match-mismatch hypothesis (Kerby et al, 2012), they may be better able to capture the mechanism of mismatching. Even so, overlap models have received mixed support in empirical tests (Ramakers et al, 2020). resources (dashed).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1; Cushing, 1974; Visser et al, 1998), whereby a population’s degree of match with their resource is estimated as the difference in peak dates (i.e., date models) or proportion of overlapping area (i.e., overlap models). However, both date and overlap models have been criticized in the literature (Lindén, 2018; Ramakers et al, 2020). While date and overlap models agree if consumer and resource curves are symmetrical (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching

Wilde

Simmons

Swift

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events and the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs – i.e., phenological mismatching. Despite the hypothetical risk mismatching poses to consumers, they do not invariably lead to individual- or population-level effects. This may stem from how mismatches are typically defined, e.g., an individual or population is ‘matched’ or ‘mismatched’ based on the degree of asynchrony with a resource pulse. However, because both resource availability and consumer demands change over time, this categorical definition can obscure within- or among-individual fitness effects. We therefore developed models to identify the effects of resource characteristics on individual- and population-level processes and determine how the strength of these effects change throughout a consumer’s life. We then measured the effects of resource characteristics on the growth, daily survival, and fledging rates of Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) chicks hatched near Beluga River, Alaska. At the individual-level, chick growth and survival improved following periods of higher invertebrate abundance but were increasingly dependent on the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, seasonal fledging rates were best explained by a model including age-structured consumer demand. Our study suggests that modelling the effects of mismatching as a disrupted interaction between consumers and their resources provides a biological mechanism for how mismatching occurs and clarifies when it matters to individuals and populations. Given the variable responses to mismatching across consumer populations, such tools for predicting how populations may respond under future climatic conditions will be invaluable.

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Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator–prey interaction: Simpler works better

Cited by 21 publications

References 61 publications

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

Among tree and habitat differences in the timing and abundance of spring caterpillars

The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching

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