Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population

Petit-Cailleux, Cathleen; Davi, Hendrik; Lefèvre, François; Garrigue, Joseph; Magdalou, Jean-André; Hurson, Christophe; Magnanou, Elodie; Oddou‐Muratorio, Sylvie

doi:10.24072/pcjournal.60

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 91 publications

(81 reference statements)

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“…Beech putative glacial refugia and colonization routes have been identified based on very detailed pollen records and genetic population surveys with chloroplast and isozyme markers (Magri et al, 2006). Beech is known to be highly sensitive to summer droughts (Aranda et al, 2015; Knutzen et al, 2017), and, to a lesser extent, to late frosts (Kreyling et al, 2014; Petit‐Cailleux et al, 2020). Genetic variation has been investigated at various climate‐related phenological traits (Gárate‐Escamilla et al, 2019; Gauzere et al, 2020; Gömöry & Paule, 2011; Kramer et al, 2017; Vitasse et al, 2009), physiological or morphological traits (Bresson et al, 2011; Hajek et al, 2016; Wortemann et al, 2011) and performance traits (Gárate‐Escamilla et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic signatures of divergent selection in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) are associated with the variation in temperature and precipitation across its distribution range

et al. 2021

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High genetic variation and extensive gene flow may help forest trees with adapting to ongoing climate change, yet the genetic bases underlying their adaptive potential remain largely unknown. We investigated range‐wide patterns of potentially adaptive genetic variation in 64 populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using 270 SNPs from 139 candidate genes involved either in phenology or in stress responses. We inferred neutral genetic structure and processes (drift and gene flow) and performed differentiation outlier analyses and gene‐environment association (GEA) analyses to detect signatures of divergent selection. Beech range‐wide genetic structure was consistent with the species’ previously identified postglacial expansion scenario and recolonization routes. Populations showed high diversity and low differentiation along the major expansion routes. A total of 52 loci were found to be putatively under selection and 15 of them turned up in multiple GEA analyses. Temperature and precipitation related variables were equally represented in significant genotype‐climate associations. Signatures of divergent selection were detected in the same proportion for stress response and phenology‐related genes. The range‐wide adaptive genetic structure of beech appears highly integrated, suggesting a balanced contribution of phenology and stress‐related genes to local adaptation, and of temperature and precipitation regimes to genetic clines. Our results imply a best‐case scenario for the maintenance of high genetic diversity during range shifts in beech (and putatively other forest trees) with a combination of gene flow maintaining within‐population neutral diversity and selection maintaining between‐population adaptive differentiation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic signatures of divergent selection in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) are associated with the variation in temperature and precipitation across its distribution range

et al. 2021

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“…We simulated a reference scenario with no disturbance at all. A medium disturbance regime was obtained by drawing the annual potential mortality rate from a unimodal Weibull distribution resulting in an average annual mortality rate of around 2%, which corresponds to observed rates in other tree species (Petit‐Cailleux et al., 2021). A severe disturbance regime was obtained by drawing the annual potential mortality rate from a bimodal Weibull distribution of frequent low‐mortality events and rare high‐mortality events (low‐mortality events were five times more frequent than high‐mortality events), reaching an average annual mortality rate around 12%.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A demo‐genetic model shows how silviculture reduces natural density‐dependent selection in tree populations

Godineau,

Fririon,

Beudez

et al. 2023

Evolutionary Applications

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Biological production systems and conservation programs benefit from and should care for evolutionary processes. Developing evolution‐oriented strategies requires knowledge of the evolutionary consequences of management across timescales. Here, we used an individual‐based demo‐genetic modelling approach to study the interactions and feedback between tree thinning, genetic evolution, and forest stand dynamics. The model combines processes that jointly drive survival and mating success—tree growth, competition and regeneration—with genetic variation of quantitative traits related to these processes. In various management and disturbance scenarios, the evolutionary rates predicted by the coupled demo‐genetic model for a growth‐related trait, vigor, fit within the range of empirical estimates found in the literature for wild plant and animal populations. We used this model to simulate non‐selective silviculture and disturbance scenarios over four generations of trees. We characterized and quantified the effect of thinning frequencies and intensities and length of the management cycle on viability selection driven by competition and fecundity selection. The thinning regimes had a drastic long‐term effect on the evolutionary rate of vigor over generations, potentially reaching 84% reduction, depending on management intensity, cycle length and disturbance regime. The reduction of genetic variance by viability selection within each generation was driven by changes in genotypic frequencies rather than by gene diversity, resulting in low‐long‐term erosion of the variance across generations, despite short‐term fluctuations within generations. The comparison among silviculture and disturbance scenarios was qualitatively robust to assumptions on the genetic architecture of the trait. Thus, the evolutionary consequences of management result from the interference between human interventions and natural evolutionary processes. Non‐selective thinning, as considered here, reduces the intensity of natural selection, while selective thinning (on tree size or other criteria) might reduce or reinforce it depending on the forester's tree choice and thinning intensity.

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“…È prevedibile che, con il ripetersi di eventi estremi di calore e siccità, gli impatti e la mortalità forestale possano essere particolarmente severi nelle stazioni con maggiori limitazioni ecologiche, tra cui terreni superficiali, substrati calcarei o ofiolitici, forti pendenze, esposizioni a sud (Petit-Cailleux et al 2021). L'attuale distribuzione delle varie specie, pertanto, è soggetta ad una modifica, andandosi a restringere alle aree dove le condizioni sono ottimali per la loro sopravvivenza e crescita.…”

Section: Forest@ Forest@ --Rivista DI Selvicoltura E Rivista Di Selvi...unclassified

Climate change in progress: observations on the impacts of drought events on Tuscan forests

Bussotti¹,

Bettini²,

Carrari³

et al. 2023

Forest@

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Climate change in progress: observations on the impacts of drought events on Tuscan forestsThe empirical observation of the impacts of drought and heat waves that occurred between 2017 and 2022 in several forest areas of Tuscany allowed to describe various processes and effects on forest trees and shrubs. The most severe impacts were observed on the evergreen Mediterranean tall woodlands and the aged coppices (on holm oak trees), causing defoliation and even mortality. In most cases, the attempts of resprouting from dormant buds (from the base of the tree trunk or in the crown), following the drought events, were not successful. Deciduous broad-leaved trees (beech, downy oak) suffered a strong summer defoliation, especially on steep slopes with shallow soils and south-facing aspect. These species were generally able to replenish the foliage the following year. In the most unfavorable conditions, however, we observed extensive attacks of opportunistic parasites, such as the fungi of the genus Biscogniauxia, which were favored by drought and were the ultimate cause of mortality. Turkey oak showed mortality in small groups or individual trees. Heat and drought also affected several minor tree species, with defoliation, desiccation and, in the most serious causes, death of the tree. Some mesohygrophilous species that are restricted with relict populations to specific microclimatic sites within the Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean habitats were also impacted, with consequences on biodiversity, regeneration, and production of fruits for wildlife. Increasing drought and heat will trigger regressive dynamic processes that will lead in many sites to the transformation of holm oak forests into bushy forms of scrub, and of scrublands into sparse garrigues or even steppes. A more intense natural thinning of aged coppice stands with especially Turkey oak is also occurring, due to the combined effect of drought and intra-or inter-specific competition. The implementation of a regional monitoring system is recommended, based on the integration of past and existing experiences with new initiatives, to quantify the dynamics, extent and severity of the impacts. A crucial point is the need to adapt forestry, and especially utilization of coppice woods, to the changed ecological conditions to avoid increasing the impact on them.

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Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population

Abstract: Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population, PeerCommunity Journal, 1: e55.

Cited by 5 publications

References 91 publications

Genetic signatures of divergent selection in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) are associated with the variation in temperature and precipitation across its distribution range

Genetic signatures of divergent selection in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) are associated with the variation in temperature and precipitation across its distribution range

A demo‐genetic model shows how silviculture reduces natural density‐dependent selection in tree populations

Climate change in progress: observations on the impacts of drought events on Tuscan forests

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