Comparing significance criteria for cyclic modulations in time series

Pommé, S.

doi:10.1016/j.nima.2020.163933

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Applying rigour in measurement conditions and data analysis [6,7], laboratories can reach consistency in half-life measurements at levels below 0.1-0.01%, as recently demonstrated in the case of 55 Fe [8,9] and 99m Tc [10]. Repeated activity measurements with the most stable instruments show absence of cyclic perturbations down to 0.023-0.00023% in amplitude [3,11], when excluding the a e-mail: stefaan.pomme@ec.europa.eu (corresponding author) susceptibility of the instrument to environmental conditions and using appropriate significance criteria [11,12]. In spite of the arguments in favour of the exponential-decay law, some authors have questioned the invariability of the decay constants [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 68%

On the recent claim of correlation between radioactive decay rates and space weather

Pommé

Pelczar

2020

Eur. Phys. J. C

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In recent literature, several authors have challenged the validity of the exponential-decay law, based on observed variations in radioactive decay rate measurements beyond statistical accuracy. Tentative explanations have been sought in external interferences influencing the decay process, such as interactions of the nuclei with solar and cosmic neutrinos. Given the important implications of such statements on theoretical and practical level, one would expect that they are backed up with radionuclide metrology of the highest quality. In reality, they share the common traits of using poor metrology and incomplete uncertainty analysis with respect to the stability of the measurement technique. In this paper, new claims of correlations between decay rates and space weather are questioned.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 68%

On the recent claim of correlation between radioactive decay rates and space weather

Pommé

Pelczar

2020

Eur. Phys. J. C

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“…To determine the significance of any peak in the L-S periodogram, we must calculate its false alarm probability or p-value. A large number of metrics have been constructed to estimate the p-value of peaks in the L-S periodogram [8,22,27,28]. We now briefly describe these myriad metrics, which we label based on the command-line options in Python, which are used to calculate these p-values:…”

Section: Generalized Lomb-scargle Periodogrammentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized Lomb–Scargle analysis of 22 years of super-Kamiokande solar $$^8$$B neutrino data

Pasumarti,

Desai

2024

Eur. Phys. J. C

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We apply the generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram to 22 years data of solar $$^{8}$$ 8 B neutrino fluxes detected by Super-Kamiokande. The primary motivation of this work was to check if the sinusoidal modulation at a frequency of 9.43/year (with a period of 38 days), which we had found to be marginally significant with the first 5 years of Super-K data, persists, with the accumulated data. We use four different metrics for the calculation of significance of any peaks in the Lomb–Scargle periodogram, which could be indicative of periodicities. We do not find any evidence for periodicity at the aforementioned frequency or any other frequency with the updated data. Therefore, the observed peak at 9.43/year with the first 5 years of Super-Kamiokande data was only a statistical fluctuation and its significance is negligible with the updated data.

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“…x . The statistical uncertainty on A ′ (when generated by normally distributed noise) is easily calculated from the uncertainty of the weighted mean of the residuals, σ 2 A ′ = 2σ 2 yw [48]. The ratio k = A ′ /σ A ′ determines the power S = k 2 /2 and the probability P = e −S that a power above S may be produced from random noise.…”

Section: Power Of Annual Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Ambient humidity, the overlooked influencer of radioactivity measurements

Pommé,

Stroh,

Altzitzoglou

et al. 2023

Metrologia

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When verifying the validity of the exponential-decay law through 137 precise decay rate measurement series at various nuclear laboratories, minor violations have been observed in the shape of annual cycles in the residuals with different amplitudes and phase shifts. The timing and amplitude of these deviations have been compared with local weather data and it appears that ambient humidity is highly correlated with the observed instabilities in these radioactivity measurements. In fact, when compensating the residuals for a linear relationship with absolute humidity in air, most of the annual cycles are no longer statistically significant. As a result, the validity of the exponential-decay law can now be demonstrated with even higher fidelity.

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Comparing significance criteria for cyclic modulations in time series

Cited by 12 publications

References 42 publications

On the recent claim of correlation between radioactive decay rates and space weather

On the recent claim of correlation between radioactive decay rates and space weather

Generalized Lomb–Scargle analysis of 22 years of super-Kamiokande solar $$^8$$B neutrino data

Ambient humidity, the overlooked influencer of radioactivity measurements

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