Comparing Past and Present Inflation

Bolhuis, Marijn; Cramer, Judd N.; Summers, Lawrence H.

doi:10.3386/w30116

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The fluctuations in inflation are also magnified by the treatment of housing in the CPI before 1982, which distorts inflation measurement relative to current practice when interest rates are volatile (Bolhuis, Cramer, and Summers, 2022). In any case, we do not analyze this period further in this paper.…”

Section: B the Effects Of Labor-market Tightness As Measured By V/umentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

Leigh¹,

Ball²,

Mishra³

2022

IMF Working Papers

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Stock for valuable comments. We thank Regis Barnichon for providing us with historical job openings data; Mattia Coppo, Yiyang Han, Nino Kodua, and Kyung Woong Koh for excellent research support; and Eduard Laurito and Gabi Ionescu for administrative support. All errors remaining are our own. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF, its Management and Executive Board, or IMF policy. A draft version of this paper was presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) Fall 2022 conference held in September 2022; and the final version of this paper will be published in the Fall 2022 BPEA issue.

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Section: B the Effects Of Labor-market Tightness As Measured By V/umentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

Leigh¹,

Ball²,

Mishra³

2022

IMF Working Papers

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“…Researchers have examined the phenomenon of stagnation and persistently low inflation rates in several developed economies. Studies by Blanchard (2019) explored the costs of public debt in low-interest rate environment, while and Bolhuis et al (2022) have highlighted CPI inflation estimates on real interest rates and monetary policy over time in the U.S. Schnabel economic growth and potentially trigger a recession, especially considering the fragile recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn (Coombs & Thiemann, 2022).…”

Section: Introduction Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation surge of 2021-2023 and monetary policy in Eastern European countries

Paslar

2023

Economy and Sociology

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This article provides an in-depth analysis of the current global economic landscape, with a particular focus on Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, and Poland. The scope of this article is to examine central banks’ responses to the challenges posed by 2021-2023 inflation. The research employs a combination of scientific methods, including empirical analysis and quantitative research. It utilizes data from reputable sources like the World Bank, National Banks, and National Bureaus of Statistics to examine various economic indicators. Statistical software R is used for data analysis, including Cross-Correlation Function (CCF) analysis. In response to rising inflation, Moldova and Ukraine raised interest rates significantly. Moldova later eased rates gradually, while Ukraine maintained a high rate to safeguard its currency. Romania and Poland, with stronger economies, saw milder rate hikes and less inflation increase compared to other Eastern European nations, adopting a cautious and delayed approach and still not reducing their base rates. A critical aspect of the research is the implementation of cross-correlation function (CCF) analysis, which is used to explore the time-lagged correlations between different economic variables, such as the Base policy rate, Commodity price index and IPC. The analyses conducted have revealed two significant patterns: a deficiency in the proactive adjustment of base rates by central banks in response to inflation and the lead-lag relationship between ascending commodity prices and inflation. These findings underscore the cautious approach taken by central banks and their delayed response to the impact of external factors on inflation dynamics.

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“…However, extending these series back in time is of limited use because the headline CPI is not revised when the methodology used to calculate inflation for individual components is changed. Changes in methodology can imply significant changes in the volatility of inflation as shown by Hazell, Herreño, Nakamura, and Steinsson (2022) and Bolhuis, Cramer, and Summers (2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Robust are Robust Measures of PCE Inflation?

Ocampo¹,

Schoenle²,

Smith³

2022

Preprint

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Time series data for robust inflation measures, such as median and trimmed mean inflation, only start in 1977. We extend these series back to 1960 for Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, providing additional episodes of high and rising inflation. We evaluate the robustness of the series along multiple dimensions: First, we find that robust inflation measures tend to diverge in periods of low inflation, but agree when headline inflation is high. The range between the robust measures averages 0.76 percentage points. Second, using yearly instead of monthly inflation when trimming or computing median inflation produces markedly different time series. Third, by contrast, variation in the number of PCE categories used in calculation and trim points for trimmed means do not have significant effects. Finally, we compare the performance of 61 robust inflation measures in predicting (current and future) trend inflation. Trimmed mean measures that trim based on yearly inflation perform best overall, while core inflation performs well when inflation is low, and median inflation consistently underperforms.

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Comparing Past and Present Inflation

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

Inflation surge of 2021-2023 and monetary policy in Eastern European countries

How Robust are Robust Measures of PCE Inflation?

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