Comparing future shifts in tree species distributions across Europe projected by statistical and dynamic process-based models

Takolander, Antti; Hickler, Thomas; Meller, Laura; Cabeza, Mar

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1403-x

Cited by 30 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…This supports the LHDH hypothesis that high diversity of herbivores and their pressure increases plant defenses [105]. Thus, warming of the climate will lead to new invasive plant species [149], which should also include a higher proportion of species with EFNs. However, the evidence from an analysis of the Viburnum genus does not necessarily support this hypothesis fully and it is notable that the largest EFN nectaries have been found in temperate-boreal V. opulus [118].…”

Section: Range Shift Of Efn-bearing Forest Plantssupporting

confidence: 75%

“…In temperate and boreal forest ecosystems, the speed of range shift of trees varies between tree species depending on their adaptation capacity to, e.g., different soil types and fertility levels [47,150]. However, distribution models of the main forest tree species in Europe have indicated a constant shift of tree species from the temperate zone to the boreal zone, a global plant invasion hotspot [58], by the end of this century [149]. Global warming will be faster in polar regions than closer to the equator due to polar amplification caused by polar sea ice loss [151].…”

Section: Range Shift Of Efn-bearing Forest Plantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Functional Role of Extrafloral Nectar in Boreal Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change

Holopainen

Blande

Sorvari

2020

Forests

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Carbohydrate-rich extrafloral nectar (EFN) is produced in nectaries on the leaves, stipules, and stems of plants and provides a significant energy source for ants and other plant mutualists outside of the flowering period. Our review of literature on EFN indicates that only a few forest plant species in cool boreal environments bear EFN-producing nectaries and that EFN production in many boreal and subarctic plant species is poorly studied. Boreal forest, the world’s largest land biome, is dominated by coniferous trees, which, like most gymnosperms, do not produce EFN. Notably, common deciduous tree species that can be dominant in boreal forest stands, such as Betula and Alnus species, do not produce EFN, while Prunus and Populus species are the most important EFN-producing tree species. EFN together with aphid honeydew is known to play a main role in shaping ant communities. Ants are considered to be keystone species in mixed and conifer-dominated boreal and mountain forests because they transfer a significant amount of carbon from the canopy to the soil. Our review suggests that in boreal forests aphid honeydew is a more important carbohydrate source for ants than in many warmer ecosystems and that EFN-bearing plant species might not have a competitive advantage against herbivores. However, this hypothesis needs to be tested in the future. Warming of northern ecosystems under climate change might drastically promote the invasion of many EFN-producing plants and the associated insect species that consume EFN as their major carbohydrate source. This may result in substantial changes in the diet preferences of ant communities, the preventative roles of ants against insect pest outbreaks, and the ecosystem services they provide. However, wood ants have adapted to using tree sap that leaks from bark cracks in spring, which may mitigate the effects of improved EFN availability.

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Section: Range Shift Of Efn-bearing Forest Plantssupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Range Shift Of Efn-bearing Forest Plantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Functional Role of Extrafloral Nectar in Boreal Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change

Holopainen

Blande

Sorvari

2020

Forests

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“…For bog woodlands, projects by the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (Bittner & Beierkuhnlein, ) and the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (Otto, Harley, van Minnen, Pooley, & de Soye, ) also assigned high vulnerability levels to this habitat type. For Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris , which are characteristic to bog woodlands, other studies projected vast declines for their European range (Takolander, Hickler, Meller, & Cabeza, ) and their climate envelopes’ accordance with the climatic conditions of Bavaria (Kölling & Zimmermann, ). Based on the identified high importance of cold minimum temperatures for this habitat type, we conclude that expected milder temperatures cause the projected negative range trends of bog woodlands.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…which are characteristic to bog woodlands, other studies projected vast declines for their European range (Takolander, Hickler, Meller, & Cabeza, 2019) and their climate envelopes' accordance with the climatic conditions of Bavaria (Kölling & Zimmermann, 2007). Based on the identified high importance of cold minimum temperatures for this habitat type, we conclude that expected milder temperatures cause the projected negative range trends of bog woodlands.…”

Section: Exposure Differences Among Forest Habitat Typesmentioning

confidence: 94%

Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change—Implications for Bavarian protected areas

Steinacker

Beierkuhnlein

Jaeschke

2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Aim Due to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio‐Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts. Methods To estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM‐algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2‐ES model for the period 2061–2080. Results Our results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio‐Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the “business as usual” scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types. Main conclusions Based on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions.

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“…To increase the resolution of our outputs, we used variables at higher resolution to project our climate-only ENMs throughout Vienne [42][43][44] . According to Guisan et al 45 , increasing resolution when projecting species distribution should be done cautiously, because the span of potential values across the range decreases when the resolution of the data decreases.…”

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confidence: 99%

Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

Préau

Grandjean

Sellier³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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& francis isselin-nondedeu 3,6Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available. open Scientific RepoRtS | (2020) 10:3570 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60479-4www.nature.com/scientificreports www.nature.com/scientificreports/ connected by "edges", which refer to ecological corridors. Landscape graphs can be used to represent ecological networks and to analyse connectivity between habitats, with, for instance, the purpose of prioritizing sites for protection, improving connectivity, or assessing potential effect of an urban development project 19,20 . In this approach, the landscape between habitat patches is represented by a "resistance" or "cost" which estimates the relationships between environmental variables and movement of the considered species 21 . Resistance surfaces can be categorical, with a cost associated with land cover types 22 ; continuous, for example from an output of ENM, where resistance increases when habitat suitability decreases 23,24 ; or binary, assuming that the influence of the matrix on species movement is homogenous between patches 25 . Ziółkowska et al. 26 have compared the efficiency of such resistance surface representation on landscape connectivity assessment and they recommend using continuous resistance surface whenever possible. Using a habitat suitability map from ENM helps to overcome a lack of sufficient data. The use of ENM output is also a way to explore predictions of changes in high habitat su...

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Comparing future shifts in tree species distributions across Europe projected by statistical and dynamic process-based models

Abstract: Comparing future shifts in tree species distributions across Europe projected by statistical and dynamic process-based models.

Cited by 30 publications

References 86 publications

Functional Role of Extrafloral Nectar in Boreal Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change

Functional Role of Extrafloral Nectar in Boreal Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change

Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change—Implications for Bavarian protected areas

Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

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