Comparing dengue and chikungunya emergence and endemic transmission in A. aegypti and A. albopictus

Abstract

Chikungunya and dengue are re-emerging mosquito-borne infectious diseases that are of increasing concern as human travel and expanding mosquito ranges increase the risk of spread. We seek to understand the differences in transient and endemic behavior of chikungunya and dengue; risk of emergence for different virus-vector assemblages; and the role that virus evolution plays in disease dynamics and risk. To address these questions, we adapt a mathematical mosquito-borne disease model to chikungunya and dengue in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. We derive analytical threshold conditions and important dimensionless parameters for virus transmission; perform sensitivity analysis on quantities of interest such as the basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium, and first epidemic peak; and compute distributions for the quantities of interest across parameter ranges. We found that chikungunya and dengue exhibit different transient dynamics and long-term endemic levels. While the order of most sensitive parameters is preserved across vector-virus combinations, the magnitude of sensitivity is different across scenarios, indicating that risk of invasion or an outbreak can change with vector-virus assemblages. We found that the dengue-A. aegypti and new Rèunion strain of chikungunya-A. albopictus systems represent the highest risk across the range of parameters considered. These results inform future experimental and field research efforts and point toward effective mitigation strategies adapted to each disease.

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“…Let N f (t) denote the total number of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes present at day t in some locality. According to [19], the mosquito birth rate can be expressed as…”

Understanding the effects of intermittent shedding on the transmission of infectious diseases: example of salmonellosis in pigs

“…For this system, control efforts can be applied to either the pig population, free-living Salmonella, or both. To determine the efficacy of different control measures, we consider R 0 as a function of the model parameters and plot R 0 over a range of feasible parameter values as in [30].…”

Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States

“…A number of epidemiological models have considered arboviral transmissions (particularly dengue and chikungunya) focusing on different aspects of disease transmission [67,70,[72][73][74][75][76] and characteristics such as seasonality, temperature dependence, cross-immunity with multiple strains, and control measures [77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85]. Several recently published modeling studies for Zika transmission have focused on fitting models to current transmission in the South Pacific and South and Central America [68,[86][87][88] with Ae.…”