Comparing Competing Theories on the Causes of Mandate Perceptions

Abstract

The discussion of presidential mandates is as certain as a presidential election itself. Journalists inevitably discuss whether the president-elect has a popular mandate. Because they see elections as too complex to allow the public to send a unitary signal, political scientists are more skeptical of mandates. Mandates, however, have received new attention by scholars asking whether perceptions of mandate arise and lead representatives to act as if voters sent a policy directive. Two explanations have emerged to account for why elected officials might react to such perceptions. One focuses on the President's strategic decision to declare a mandate, the second on how members of Congress read signals of changing preferences in the electorate from their own election results. We test these competing views to see which more accurately explains how members of Congress act in support of a perceived mandate. The results indicate that members respond more to messages about changing preferences than to the president's mandate declaration.

Citizens’ Evaluations of the Fulfillment of Election Pledges: Evidence from Ireland

“…There are two main responses to this argument, both of which recognize its validity. The first response is that even if election results do not contain clear signals about policy, political elites regularly interpret them as such and adjust their behavior accordingly (e.g., Grossback, Peterson, and Stimson 2005). While there may be little to no justification for this interpretation on the part of political elites, it is a fact of political life that deserves political scientists' attention.…”

Electoral Margins and American Foreign Policy1

“…The Seat Swing variable reflects Grossback et al.’s conception of the message members of Congress receive from elections (Peterson et al. 2003; Grossback et al. 2005; Grossback, Peterson, and Stimson 2006), while the Congress variable adheres more closely to standard conceptions of institutional balancing in which the relative strength and distribution of parties within the branches drives outcomes (Krehbiel 1996).…”

Barack Obama and the Rhetoric of Electoral Logic

“…Scholars have reconciled the persistence of the presidential mandate idea with the empirical challenges the concept poses by suggesting that mandates are a matter of framing and perception (Grossback, Peterson, andStimson, 2005, 2007;Jones, 2005). As such, mandates exist primarily as the product of narrative, or in Grossback, Peterson, and Stimson's (2007:14) term, "social constructions."…”