Comparing Alternative Biomass Supply Options for Canada: What Story Do Cost Curves Tell?

Yemshanov, Denys; McKenney, Daniel W.; Hope, Emily S.

doi:10.15376/biores.13.2.3157-3164

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…disturbances and climate-induced growth constraints would likely reduce timber supply (Gauthier et al 2015;Daniel et al 2017;Boucher et al 2019;Brecka et al 2020) which would greatly affect supply value chains (Yemshanov et al 2018). A posteriori analyses showed that strong anthropogenic climate forcing will reduce harvested biomass by as much as 40% by 2150 (Suppl.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Boreal forests will be more severely affected by projected anthropogenic climate forcing than mixedwood and northern hardwood forests in eastern Canada

Boulanger

Puigdevall

2021

Landscape Ecol

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Increased anthropogenic climate forcing is projected to have tremendous impacts on global forest ecosystems, with northern biomes being more at risk. ObjectivesTo model the impacts of harvest and increased anthropogenic climate forcing on eastern Canada's forest landscapes and to assess the strong spatial heterogeneity in the severity, the nature and direction of the impacts expected within northern forest regions. MethodsWe used LANDIS-II to project species-specific aboveground biomass (AGB) between 2020 and 2150 under three climate (baseline, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and two harvest (baseline harvest, no harvest) scenarios within four forest regions (boreal west, boreal east, mixedwood and northern hardwood). ResultsClimate change impacts within the boreal forest regions would mainly result from increases in wildfires activity which will strongly alter total AGB. In the mixedwood and northern hardwood, changes will be less important and will result from climate-induced growth constraints that will alter species composition towards more thermophilous species. Climate-induced impacts were much more important and swifter under RCP 8.5 after 2080 suggesting that eastern Canada's forests might cross important tipping points under strong anthropogenic climate forcing.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Boreal forests will be more severely affected by projected anthropogenic climate forcing than mixedwood and northern hardwood forests in eastern Canada

Boulanger

Puigdevall

2021

Landscape Ecol

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“…The forest sector is currently one of the most important industry in eastern Canada, representing $11.5 MM, i.e., 4.4% of Quebec’s GDP in 2006 (MFFP 2016). Alterations in biomass, age structure and species composition resulting from changes in natural disturbances and climate-induced growth constraints would likely reduce timber supply (Gauthier et al 2015; Daniel et al 2017; Boucher et al 2019; Brecka et al 2020) which would greatly affect supply value chains (Yemshanov et al 2018). A posteriori analyses showed that strong anthropogenic climate forcing will reduce harvested biomass by as much as 40% by 2150 (Suppl.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Boreal forests will be more severely affected by projected anthropogenic climate forcing than mixedwood and northern hardwood forests in eastern Canada

Boulanger

Puigdevall

2020

Preprint

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Context Increased anthropogenic climate forcing is projected to have tremendous impacts on global forest ecosystems, with northern biomes being more at risk. Objectives To model the impacts of harvest and increased anthropogenic climate forcing on eastern Canada forest landscapes and to assess the strong spatial heterogeneity in the severity, the nature and direction of the impacts expected within northern forest regions. Methods We used LANDIS-II to project species-specific aboveground biomass (AGB) between 2020 and 2150 under three climate (baseline, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and two harvest (baseline harvest, no harvest) scenarios within four forest regions (boreal west, boreal east, mixedwood and northern hardwood). Results Climate change impacts within the boreal forest regions would mainly result from increases in wildfires activity which will strongly alter total AGB. In the mixedwood and northern hardwood, changes will be less important and will result from climate-induced growth constraints that will alter species composition towards more thermophilous species. Climate-induced impacts were much more important and swifter under RCP 8.5 after 2080 suggesting that eastern Canada forests might cross important tipping points under strong anthropogenic climate forcing. Conclusions Boreal forest regions will be much less resilient than mixedwood or northern hardwoods to the projected changes in climate regimes. Current harvest strategies will interact with anthropogenic climate forcing to further modify forest landscapes, notably by accelerating thermophilous species AGB gain in southernmost regions. Major changes to harvest practices are strongly needed to preserve the long-term sustainability of wood supply in eastern Canada. Adaptation strategies should be region-specific.

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“…The concerns expressed by panel manufacturers regarding the future price of feedstock appear to be warranted in some cases, although it is important to note that the model assumes no changes to external factors. As such, changes in the supply and price of biomass and other fossil fuels external to the GoC's policies are ignored, as are changes in the availability of biomass from other sectors [73], and external shifts in consumer demand, all of which may have an impact on the ability of panel producers to access feedstock, but are beyond the scope of this analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other bioenergy feedstocks do exist however, (harvest residues, agricultural feedstocks, purpose grown biomass, etc.) possibly making the demand from bioenergy producers for sawmill residues more elastic [73], reducing the feedstock accessibility risk for the composite panel industry.…”

Section: Model Considerations and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change Policies on the Market for Forest Industrial Residues

2020

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As part of the Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) on Clean Growth and Climate Change, the Government of Canada (GoC) introduced carbon pricing and is in the process of developing a Clean Fuel (CF) Standard. Both policies are key elements of the PCF and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the use of lower carbon fuels, including bioenergy. Carbon pricing and the CF Standard are expected to increase the demand for biomass feedstocks, possibly threatening feedstock availability for existing forest industrial residues users, including composite panel manufacturers. To assess the potential impact of carbon pricing and the CF Standard on Canadian composite panel producers, a Monte Carlo-based model was developed to estimate possible increases in feedstock price-points that composite panel manufacturers may face as a result of increases in bioenergy consumption. Results suggest that the composite panel industry may be negatively impacted in the long-term (2030) by the relative price increase of fossil fuels covered by carbon pricing and additional revenues for biofuel suppliers from CF Standard credits, assuming no other adjustments to the market. Although these results are preliminary in that the analysis excludes external market factors that could influence the outcome, there is evidence that such policies have the potential to generate supply risks for the Canadian composite panel industry without careful consideration of the associated externalities.

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Comparing Alternative Biomass Supply Options for Canada: What Story Do Cost Curves Tell?

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Boreal forests will be more severely affected by projected anthropogenic climate forcing than mixedwood and northern hardwood forests in eastern Canada

Boreal forests will be more severely affected by projected anthropogenic climate forcing than mixedwood and northern hardwood forests in eastern Canada

Boreal forests will be more severely affected by projected anthropogenic climate forcing than mixedwood and northern hardwood forests in eastern Canada

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change Policies on the Market for Forest Industrial Residues

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