Comparing a 41-year model hindcast with decades of wave measurements from the Baltic Sea

Abstract

We present ice-free and ice-included statistics for the Baltic Sea using a wave hindcast validated against data from 13 wave measurement sites. In the hindcast 84% of wave events with a significant wave height over 7 m occurred between November and January. The effect of the ice cover is largest in the Bay of Bothnia, where the mean significant wave height is reduced by 30% when the ice time is included in the statistics. The difference between these two statistics are less than 0.05 m below a latitude of 59.5°. The seasonal ice cover also causes measurement gaps by forcing an early recovery of the instruments. Including the time not captured by the wave buoy can affect the estimates for the significant wave height by roughly 20%. The impact below the 99 th percentiles are still under 5%. The significant wave height is modelled accurately even close to the shore, but the highest peak periods are underestimated in a narrow bay. Sensitivity test show that this underestimation is most likely caused by an excessive refraction towards the shore. Reconsidering the role of the spatial resolution and the physical processes affecting the low-frequency waves is suggested as a possible solution.

An Evaluation of the Wind and Wave Dynamics along the European Coasts

“…Based on the annual, winter, and summer averages of the wind speed, the linear trends for the most representative points (one for each location) are presented in Table 3. At this point, it has to be highlighted that the linear trend values presented in this table are in line with those computed by other authors, as for example [34][35][36][37][38][39]. The data computed show slight increasing trends (ranging from 0.03-0.14 m/s per decade) for the reference points C4, A3, E3, B1, and D3, or decreasing trends for the points F1, J2, H2, I1, and G1 (ranging from −0.07-−0.01 m/s per decade).…”

“…Along the coasts of the Black Sea, the synergy between wind and wave power was analyzed and interesting results presented in [37,38]. Finally, the results of a 41-year hindcast in the Baltic Sea were presented in [39].…”

Meteo-Marine Parameters from Sentinel-1 SAR Imagery: Towards Near Real-Time Services for the Baltic Sea

“…For the semi-enclosed micro-tidal Baltic Sea with the absence of long swell waves and short wave "memory" [17], and the significant wave heights remaining mostly between 0 and 2 m (rarely exceeds 4 m [18,19]), the second type of mentioned methods is recommended [13,20,21]. Windsea waves are short-crested and represent a considerable number of small, nonstable, fast, and erratically moving targets for a SAR sensor.…”

“…Although Södra Östersjön station (55.9167 • N, 18.7833 • E) is included into BOOS measurement stations, the last unrestricted access measurement data was received in 2011. However, Southern Baltic Sea is a location where the highest waves occur [18,19]. As no in situ measurements are carried out in the region, the SAR-derived results would be highly valuable for model validation and/or assimilation into the wave model.…”

Assessment of Extreme and Metocean Conditions in the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone for Wave Energy

“…The Baltic Sea is a relatively large semi-enclosed sea, and the wave conditions for this basin have been extensively studied in earlier work using measurements (e.g., [26][27][28]) and modeling (e.g., [29][30][31]), describing also the seasonal dependence (e.g., [30,32]). Some studies of extreme conditions have also been carried out [33], and recently through high-resolution modeling over a long time period of 52 years, the work in [31] studied high percentile significant wave height results.…”