Comparative study on climate change impact on precipitation and floods in Asian river basins

Abstract

Abstract:As many water related disasters occur frequently around the world, proper assessment of future climate change impact on floods and droughts is essential. In this study, we focused on basin-scale climate change impact assessment as necessary information for studying adaptation measures on the basis of integrated water resources management. We used Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) 3.2S (20 km grid super high resolution model) and a series of simulation methods for climate change analysis. We conducted a comparative study on changes in precipitation, flood discharge and inundation in the future during the wet and dry seasons for five target river basins in the Asian monsoon area. We found that regional precipitation outputs from the high resolution model in this study were in good agreement in the point of tendency of their changes in wet and dry monsoon seasons with the regional precipitation analysis in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group 1 (WG1) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). This study illustrated that the proposed methodology can make more detailed descriptions of climate change possible. The study also found the importance of basin-scale runoff and inundation analysis with downscaling especially for basins where floods occur for a short period, suggesting potential differences between flood change and precipitation change from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs such as maximum 5-day precipitation index in a basin. As a result, this paper confirms the importance of basin-scale discharge and inundation analysis for climate change considering basin characteristics from the viewpoint of river management.

Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

“…Kure and Tebakari, 2012;Iwami et al, 2017) due to climate change. Iwami et al (2017) reported that the Solo River basin, located on the east side of Java Island, will become wet in the future, with more inundation areas and specific peak discharges in extreme flood events.…”

“…Kure and Tebakari, 2012;Iwami et al, 2017) due to climate change. Iwami et al (2017) reported that the Solo River basin, located on the east side of Java Island, will become wet in the future, with more inundation areas and specific peak discharges in extreme flood events. However, this was not considered in the present study because, as reported by Budiyono et al (2016), the impact of climate change on floods in Jakarta may be much smaller than that of land-use changes and land subsidence.…”

Approach for Analysis of Land-Cover Changes and Their Impact on Flooding Regime

“…Based on previous literature, Blöschl et al [2] hypothesized the impact of climate and land-use/land-cover changes on hydrological response as a function of catchment scale as shown in Figure 1, which shows that sudden changes in the watershed response can occur due to land use/land cover change [3]. The impact of climate change on magnitude and frequency of floods has been widely investigated [4][5][6]. Similarly, numerous researches focused on study on the impacts of land cover changes on watershed hydrological response [3,[7][8][9], however, only a few of them focused on analyzing the impact of land-cover change in river floods using distributed hydrological modeling [7].…”

Application of Satellite Rainfall Products for Flood Inundation Modelling in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia

“…The results of the simulations in these studies have a good agreement with the observed hydrological data and satellite-derived flood map extent. The effects of land use and climate change on flood behavior were also investigated using the RRI model [38,39]. None of these studies, however, used Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data in the RRI model.…”