Comparative Dynamics of Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variants across and between California and Mexico

Mehta, Sanjay R.; Smith, Davey M; Boukadida, Célia; Chaillon, Antoine

doi:10.3390/v14071494

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…If the waning of natural immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 is taken into account, then the mathematical model would need modifications. In addition, a more complex mathematical model is necessary if we consider the appearance of new SARS-CoV-2 variants with significantly different transmissibility such the Omicron variant [ 75 , 101 , 147 , 151 , 173 , 174 ]. Another limitation of this work is the uncertainty of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA

González-Parra¹,

Cervantes

2023

MBE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

<abstract><p>In this paper we study different vaccination strategies that could have been implemented for the early COVID-19 pandemic. We use a demographic epidemiological mathematical model based on differential equations in order to investigate the efficacy of a variety of vaccination strategies under limited vaccine supply. We use the number of deaths as the metric to measure the efficacy of each of these strategies. Finding the optimal strategy for the vaccination programs is a complex problem due to the large number of variables that affect the outcomes. The constructed mathematical model takes into account demographic risk factors such as age, comorbidity status and social contacts of the population. We perform simulations to assess the performance of more than three million vaccination strategies which vary depending on the vaccine priority of each group. This study focuses on the scenario corresponding to the early vaccination period in the USA, but can be extended to other countries. The results of this study show the importance of designing an optimal vaccination strategy in order to save human lives. The problem is extremely complex due to the large amount of factors, high dimensionality and nonlinearities. We found that for low/moderate transmission rates the optimal strategy prioritizes high transmission groups, but for high transmission rates, the optimal strategy focuses on groups with high CFRs. The results provide valuable information for the design of optimal vaccination programs. Moreover, the results help to design scientific vaccination guidelines for future pandemics.</p></abstract>

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA

González-Parra¹,

Cervantes

2023

MBE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These models are used to study the impact of a variety of health interventions on epidemics. With in silico simulations of the mathematical models we can produce a variety of outcomes that are difficult to foresee due to the nonlinearity and complexity of the epidemics [ 75 – 77 ]. In addition, in some cases the mathematical analysis permits us to determine under what conditions the disease can disappear.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects

González-Parra

Arenas

2023

Computation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic millions of deaths and hospitalizations have been reported. Different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been recognized during this pandemic and some of these variants of concern have caused uncertainty and changes in the dynamics. The Omicron variant has caused a large amount of infected cases in the US and worldwide. The average number of deaths during the Omicron wave toll increased in comparison with previous SARS-CoV-2 waves. We studied the Omicron wave by using a highly nonlinear mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel model includes individuals who are vaccinated and asymptomatic, which influences the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, the model considers the waning of the immunity and efficacy of the vaccine against the Omicron strain. This study uses the facts that the Omicron strain has a higher transmissibility than the previous circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain but is less deadly. Preliminary studies have found that Omicron has a lower case fatality rate compared to previous circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. The simulation results show that even if the Omicron strain is less deadly it might cause more deaths, hospitalizations and infections. We provide a variety of scenarios that help to obtain insight about the Omicron wave and its consequences. The proposed mathematical model, in conjunction with the simulations, provides an explanation for a large Omicron wave under various conditions related to vaccines and transmissibility. These results provide an awareness that new SARS-CoV-2 variants can cause more deaths even if their fatality rate is lower.

show abstract

Mathematical analysis of new variant Omicron model driven by Lévy noise and with variable-order fractional derivatives

Moualkia

2023

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Comparative Dynamics of Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variants across and between California and Mexico

Cited by 3 publications

References 54 publications

Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA

Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA

Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects

Mathematical analysis of new variant Omicron model driven by Lévy noise and with variable-order fractional derivatives

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About