A risk analysis was conducted to compare the economic risk of producing hybrid striped bass (♀ white bass Morone chrysops × ♂ striped bass M. saxatilis) fingerlings in ponds and indoor tanks. Cost budgets developed previously for three pond sizes (0.4, 1.2, and 2.4 ha) and three tank sizes (945, 2,457, and 5,670 L) for each of six scales of production (50,000, 100,000, 250,000, 500,000, 1,000,000, and 2,000,000 fingerlings/year) were used as the initial starting point for the development of a spreadsheet‐based risk analysis. Probability distributions and cumulative frequency distributions of break‐even prices above total costs were calculated for each scenario. Pond production was less risky than tank production, and larger pond sizes had lower risk. Survival rates contributed the most to the economic risk of hybrid striped bass fingerling production. Research is needed to improve survival rates for hybrid striped bass fingerling production in ponds.