Comparative Analysis of the Maritime Venture Risk and the Cost of Averting a Fatality in the Republic of Croatia

Abstract

Given the fact that every maritime venture is exposed to continuous risks, it is necessary to create a hierarchic structure of its predictors and to manage them efficiently. In view of that, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) suggests the possibility of risk management through the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The key element in the implementation of this method is to determine the optimum point of investment in risk reduction with the purpose of achieving the balance between the costs of protective measures and the profit. Although it may be inappropriate to discuss the price of a human life, it is nevertheless possible to calculate it by formal mathematical procedures through the Cost of Averting a Fatality (CAF) and the Implied Cost of Averting a Fatality (ICAF). This methodology has allowed to produce-and to present in this paper-the above values for the Republic of Croatia for the very first time. In addition, by using the ϰ2 test, it has been possible to examine the relations between the observed actions (foundering, collision / impact, flooding, fire, disabled and adrift, man overboard) and the period (years 2006-2017). The results clearly show a statistically relevant dependence (ϰ2(88)=143,17; p<0,001) among the observed categories, which probably results from various implementation dynamics of the risk reduction measures that are performed in Croatia on a yearly basis. The results obtained by this research can provide important additional guidelines for the optimisation of the risk management model. Sažetak Uzimajući u obzir činjenicu da je svaki plovidbeni pothvat izložen kontinuiranom riziku, nužno je na odgovarajući način hijerarhijski strukturirati njegove prediktore te njima optimalno upravljati. U skladusa spomenutim, IMO (eng. International Maritime Organization) nudi mogućnost upravljanja rizikom uz pomoć Formalne procjene sigurnosti (eng. Formal Safety Assessment-FSA). Pritom je ključan element implementacije te metode određivanja optimalne točke ulaganja u smanjenje rizika s ciljem postizanja ravnoteže troškova zaštitnih mjera i dobiti. Iako je neprikladno govoriti o cijeni ljudskog života, ona se formalnim matematičkim postupcima izračunava putem cijene sprečavanja pogibelji (eng. Cost of Averting a Fatality-CAF), te pretpostavljene cijene sprječavanja pogibelji (engl. Implied Cost of Averting a Fatality-ICAF). U radu su korištenjem prikladne metodologije po prvi put izračunate spomenute vrijednosti za Republiku Hrvatsku. Dodatno, korištenjem ϰ2 testa, ispitana je zavisnost broja promatranih akcija (tone, sudar/udar, naplavljivanje, požar, onesposobljen i pluta, čovjek u moru) i godine (2006.-2017.). Rezultati jasno pokazuju postojanje statistički značajne zavisnosti (ϰ2(49)=152,57; p<0,001) promatarnih kategorija, što je vjerojatno posljedica različitih implementacijskih dinamika mjera za smanjenje rizika koje se u Hrvatskoj provode na godišnjoj bazi. Rezultati ovog istraživanja mogu dati važne dodatne smjernice optimizaciji modela upravljanja rizikom. KEY WORDS risk management ...