Comparative Analysis of Illicit Supply Network Structure and Operations: Cocaine, Wildlife, and Sand

Abstract

Illicit supply networks (ISNs) are composed of coordinated human actors that source, transit, and distribute illicitly traded goods to consumers, while also creating widespread social and environmental harms. Despite growing documentation of ISNs and their impacts, efforts to understand and disrupt ISNs remain insufficient due to the persistent lack of knowledge connecting a given ISN's modus operandi and its patterns of activity in space and time. The core challenge is that the data and knowledge needed to integrate it remain fragmented and/or compartmentalized across disciplines, research groups, and agencies tasked with understanding or monitoring one or a few specific ISNs. One path forward is to conduct comparative analyses of multiple diverse ISNs. We present and apply a conceptual framework for linking ISN modus operandi to spatial-temporal dynamics and patterns of activity. We demonstrate this through a comparative analysis of three ISNs -cocaine, illegally traded wildlife, and illegally mined sand -which range from well-established to emergent, global to domestic in geographic scope, and fully illicit to de facto legal. The proposed framework revealed consistent traits related to geographic price structure, value capture at different supply chain stages, and key differences among ISN structure and operation related to commodity characteristics and their relative illicitness. Despite the diversity of commodities and ISN attributes compared, social and environmental harms inflicted by the illicit activity consistently become more widespread with increasing law enforcement disruption. Drawing on these lessons from diverse ISNs, which varied in their histories and current sophistication, possible changes in the structure and function of nascent and/or low salience ISNs may be anticipated if future conditions or law enforcement pressure change.

Illicit activity and scarce natural resources in the supply chain: A literature review, framework, and research agenda

“…Ekwall and Lantz's (2013, 2016) SCM research on cargo theft has furthered the use of criminology theories to understand illicit transportation activity. Similar approaches using theories such as social disorganization theory (Shaw & McKay, 1942) or a crime, place, networks perspective (Magliocca et al, 2021) could inform empirical and analytic research on managing risks in complex supply chain networks where illicit natural resources emerge and flow.…”

The New Source to Sink: Opportunities for Geoscientists in Sand and Gravel Mining

“…While most consumption occurs near extraction sites (<100 km), there are often multiple options for mining within that radius. Moreover, increasing demand in areas without their own domestic supply, like Singapore and Hong Kong, leads to longer transport, with some supply chains operated by full-fledged illicit networks (Magliocca et al, 2021). Traceable sourcing is the cornerstone of sustainability policy, yet in sand and gravel mining there are currently no reliable, scalable monitoring methods beyond self-reporting and direct observation.…”

Fingerprinting construction sand supply-networks for traceable sourcing

“…By providing a method to independently confirm the geographic origin of samples, sand fingerprinting could identify illegal extraction and fraudulent trade practices. Responsible sourcing applications of these methods are particularly interesting in regions and countries with existing regulatory concerns and active illicit supply-networks (42) and in places with limited local supply that rely heavily on imports such as Singapore (5) or Hong-Kong (70%; 43). The full spectrum of specific applications of fingerprinting construction sand supply-networks is likely broader than we have currently described.…”