Comparative analysis of exponential smoothing models to tourists' arrivals in Serbia

Papić-Blagojević, Nataša; Vujko, Aleksandra; Gajić, Tamara

doi:10.5937/ekopolj1603835p

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 20 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…According to Papić-Blagojević et al (2016), and Vujko et al (2018), seasonality is one of the main aspects affecting tourism, and forecasts of tourist arrivals are essential for planning (Brougham & Butler, 1981), policy making (Dogan, 1989;Canizares et al, 2016) and budgeting purposes by tourism operators (Choi & Murray, 2010;Deng et al, 2011;Gounopoulos et al, 2012). Ada Ciganlija is a river island on Sava River and popular swimming area for residents of Belgrade during the summer, but it attracts a significant number of visitors off summer season, so, as such, it represents one of the favorite zones of picnic-recreational tourism within the city of Belgrade.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Monitoring and Forecasting Tourists Arrivals as a Means of Overcoming Seasonality

Vujko¹,

N²,

Dimitric³

et al. 2018

GTG

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Monitoring and Forecasting Tourists Arrivals as a Means of Overcoming Seasonality

Vujko¹,

N²,

Dimitric³

et al. 2018

GTG

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Performance Analysis of the Triple Exponential Smoothing Method During the Covid19 Pandemic on Tourist Visit Data

Susila

Atmojo

Srinadi

et al. 2022

2022 1st International Conference on Information System &Amp; Information Technology (ICISIT)

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Applying the exponential smoothing model for forecasting tourists' arrivals: Example of Novi Sad, Belgrade and Niš

Vujko

Papić-Blagojević

Gajić

2018

Ekonomika poljoprivrede

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Predicting future movements of tourism demand based solely on the past behaviour of variables such as number of overnight stays is crucial for the development of tourism and mitigation of seasonality. Nowadays, there are many different models that could be used for forecasting. Sometimes, some simpler models could fit better to collected data and, in the other hand, more sophisticated ones are more convenient. In this paper, the exponential smoothing models have been applied on the data that was taken from Republic Statistical Office (RSO). The research was conducted on monthly data relating to the number of overnight stays in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš during the period from January 2000 to December 2013. Based on the selected data, forecasting was made for overnight stays until May 2018. It is concluded that the selected models correspond to the observed data, and the precision of the obtained predictions is determined by comparing the BIC precision measures.

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Comparative analysis of exponential smoothing models to tourists' arrivals in Serbia

Abstract: Summary

Cited by 3 publications

References 20 publications

Demographic Monitoring and Forecasting Tourists Arrivals as a Means of Overcoming Seasonality

Demographic Monitoring and Forecasting Tourists Arrivals as a Means of Overcoming Seasonality

Performance Analysis of the Triple Exponential Smoothing Method During the Covid19 Pandemic on Tourist Visit Data

Applying the exponential smoothing model for forecasting tourists' arrivals: Example of Novi Sad, Belgrade and Niš

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