Comparative Analysis of Early Dynamic Trends in Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: A Modeling Framework

Lin, Huazhen

doi:10.1101/2020.02.21.20026468

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In Southeast Asia and South America, governments are struggling to enforce total lockdowns. This is because of lack of the resources to conduct massive testing and implement heavy techdriven measures used by wealthier countries (Lin et al 2020). Even better off countries such as Singapore and South Korea, which reported successes in keeping business and society open are facing some challenges to extensively implement lockdowns for a longer period of time (Khan and Ghauri 2019).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The urban penalty of COVID-19 lockdowns across the globe: manifestations and lessons for Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa

et al. 2020

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The paper contributes towards deciphering and decoding the misery of the urban poor in light of the COVID-19 scourge. The paper unpacks urban poverty in light of the corona virus. The emergence of the COVID-19 and the lack of any vaccines requires physical distancing as preventative measures to contain and reduce the spread of the virus. Governments across the world, including in Anglophone Sub Saharan Africa have implemented lockdown measures. The COVID-19 pandemic is happening within settlements where the majority of the population lives from hand to mouth. In Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa because of urbanisation and increased urban poverty, COVID-19 scourge has had a huge impact on the urban poor. The COVID-19 is likely to devastate economies and the community. For rapidly growing, densely populated and poorly planned settlements, the situation is tragic for these inhabitants. Nation states lockdown and social and physical distancing in response to the pandemic have escalated their misery. The paper adopts a critical review of literature anchored in case study analysis, document analysis and scanning from reports. Results point to redefining the way humanity has related, functioned and conceptualised realities. There is need to go beyond prevention from infection as majority of urban dwellers are in the informal sector or unemployed. For the urban poor, strategies for social distancing may not be possible or effective. People are being asked to make choices between being hungry and risk of getting infected. The paper recommends planning response at national, regional and local level bearing in mind informal settlements, high densities and forms of overcrowding which have been placed as hotspots for the virus. There is need for rebuilding societies, during and beyond COVID-19 calling for immediate disaster risk planning adaptation and transformation to promote resilience.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The urban penalty of COVID-19 lockdowns across the globe: manifestations and lessons for Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa

et al. 2020

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“…Lin et.al. [16] predicted that a large scale pandemic was unavoidable in Europe and the USA, and it would peak between April and July 2020. The rates at which the virus is spreading in some countries are much higher than those in China, with the USA being the highest (around 235,000 cases in just two months [12]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the asymmetric spread and case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 among countries

Iype

Gulati

2020

Preprint

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The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections are rising rapidly every day in the world, causing the disease COVID-19 with around 2 million people * Email: e.iype@dubai.bits-pilani.ac.in countries: one category with high CFR numbers (around 10%) and the other category with low CFR numbers (2% to 4%). When we analyzed the results, we see that countries with lower CFR numbers more or less tend to have implemented active control measures such as aggressive testing, tracking down possible infections, effective quarantine measures, etc. Moreover, we did not see any convincing correlation between mortality rates and the median age of the population.

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“…Lin et.al. [5] predicted that a large scale pandemic was unavoidable in Europe and the USA, and it would peak between April and July 2020. The rates at which the virus is spreading in some countries are much higher than those in China, with the USA being the highest (around 235,000 cases in just two months [6]).…”

Section: Original Manuscript 1 Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the asymmetric spread and case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 among countries (Preprint)

Iype¹,

Gulati²

2020

Preprint

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UNSTRUCTURED The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections are rising rapidly every day in the world, causing the disease COVID-19 with around 2 million people infected and more than 100,000 people died so far, in more than 200 countries. One of the baffling aspects of this pandemic is the asymmetric increase in cases and case fatality rate (CFR) among countries. We analyze the time series of the infection and fatality numbers and found two interesting aspects. Firstly, the rate of spread in a region is directly connected to the population density of the region where the virus is spreading. For example, the high rate of increase in cases in the United States of America (USA) is related to the high population density of New York City. This is shown by scaling the cumulative number of cases with a measure of the population density of the affected region in countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany, and the USA and we see that the curves are coinciding. Secondly, we analyzed the CFR number as a function of the number of days, since the first death, and we found that there are two clear categories among countries: one category with high CFR numbers (around 10%) and the other category with low CFR numbers (2% to 4%). When we analyzed the results, we see that countries with lower CFR numbers more or less tend to have implemented active control measures such as aggressive testing, tracking down possible infections, effective quarantine measures, etc. Moreover, we did not see any convincing correlation between mortality rates and the median age of the population.

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Comparative Analysis of Early Dynamic Trends in Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: A Modeling Framework

Cited by 7 publications

References 38 publications

The urban penalty of COVID-19 lockdowns across the globe: manifestations and lessons for Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa

The urban penalty of COVID-19 lockdowns across the globe: manifestations and lessons for Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa

Understanding the asymmetric spread and case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 among countries

Understanding the asymmetric spread and case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 among countries (Preprint)

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