Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Droughts in the Lake Titicaca Basin

Zubieta, Ricardo; Molina, Jorge; Laqui, Wilber; Sulca, Juan; Ilbay, Mercy

doi:10.3390/w13020175

Cited by 26 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Drought duration (D d ): It refers to the number of consecutive months (or weeks) in which precipitation (or soil moisture or runoff) is below the chosen threshold [102,103]. e duration is highly dependent on the chosen threshold for the declaration of the start and end of the drought episode (Figure 2).…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Drought Monitoring Based on Satellite CHIRPS Product over Gamo Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Shalishe

Bhowmick

Elias

2022

Advances in Meteorology

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Drought is a frequent occurrence in semidesert areas of southern Ethiopia that significantly affect regional, social, economic, and environmental conditions. Lack of rainfall monitoring network, instrument measurement, and failure are major bottlenecks for agro-and hydroclimate research in developing countries. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance of CHIRPS rainfall product and to assess meteorological drought using SPI for the period 2000 to 2020 over Gamo Zone, southern Ethiopia. The performance of CHIRPS v2 was assessed and compared to station observations (2000–2020) in the study domain to derive SPI on a three-month timescale. The Pearson correlation coefficient (R), bias, probability of bias (PBias), mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash simulation efficiency (NSE) values across the zone for CHIRPS v2 were found to be 0.88, 1.02, 2.56, 0.25, 22.41, 33.14, and 0.77, respectively. The results indicate that CHIRPS performed good ability to analyze the drought characteristics in the Gamo Zone. The spatial and temporal distribution method of meteorological drought has been evaluated using the Climate Data Tool (CDT). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed using the gamma distribution method. The magnitude of (SPI-3) of monthly and seasonal (MAM) meteorological drought in the zone from 2000 to 2020. The result shows that the known historic drought years (2014, 2015, 2010, 2009, and 2008) were indicated very well. Furthermore, sever and extreme droughts were observed in 2008 and 2009 with drought duration of 6.7 and 6.3, respectively, in most areas of the zone. Hence, this study revealed that CHIRPS can be a useful supplement for measuring rainfall data to estimate rainfall and drought monitoring in this region.

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Section: Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Drought Monitoring Based on Satellite CHIRPS Product over Gamo Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Shalishe

Bhowmick

Elias

2022

Advances in Meteorology

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“…We intend to characterize the dynamical mechanisms through which DJF precipitation in the Central Andes is affected by the interdecadal components of the Niño 4 and Niño 1 + 2 indices (IN4 and IN1+2*), the IPO, the interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Ocean and the AMO. Our results thereby contribute to establishing a more robust predictive framework in this region, including a longer, decadalscale planning horizon for implementing adaptation strategies to address rainfall extremes such as droughts, which significantly affect this region (Sulca et al, 2016;Andrade, 2018;SENAMHI, 2019;Zubieta et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Interdecadal variability of the austral summer precipitation over the Central Andes

Sulca

Vuille²,

Dong³

2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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The impacts of the interdecadal variability of the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans on precipitation over the Central Andes during the austral summer (December-January-February, DJF) are investigated for the 1921–2010 period based on monthly gridded precipitation data and low-pass filtered time series of the Niño 4 index (IN4), the Niño 1 + 2 index with Niño 3.4 index removed (IN1+2*), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) indices, and the three first rotated principal components of the interdecadal component of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of precipitation in the Central Andes (10°S–30°S) yields two leading modes, RPC1 and RPC2, which represent 40.4% and 18.6% of the total variance, respectively. REOF1 features a precipitation dipole between the northern Bolivian and the Chilean Altiplano. REOF2 also features a precipitation dipole, with highest negative loading over the southern Peruvian Andes. The REOF1 positive phase is associated with moisture transport from the lowlands toward the Bolivian Altiplano, induced by upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the Central Andes. At the same time conditions tend to be dry over the southern Peruvian Andes. The positive phase of REOF2 is related to weakened moisture transport, induced by upper-level westerly wind anomalies over Peru. The IPO warm phase induces significant dry anomalies over the Bolivian Altiplano, albeit weaker than during the IN4 warm phase, via upper-level westerly wind anomalies over the Central Andes. No significant relationship was found between Central Andean precipitation and the AMO on interdecadal timescales.

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“…These results suggest that CMIP5 GCMs in group C present incorrect compensatory feedback. These incorrect compensatory feedbacks would explain the high statistical scores (e.g., Pearson coefficient correlation, root-mean-square deviation, and coefficient of variation) between rain-gauge stations and precipitation simulated by five CMIP5 GCMs belonging to group C [46]. However, the description of the mechanism associated with this incorrect compensatory feedback is beyond the scope of the present study.…”

Section: Performance Of the Regcm4 Modelmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…The uncertainty in the projection of the absolute difference in DJF precipitation over the central Andes is also related to an incorrect feedback simulation in the Andes-Amazon region observed in most CMIP5 GCMs, e.g., group C, which contains 19 out of 25 CMIP5 GCMs. Even having incorrect feedback, the group C realistically simulates the climatological features of the austral summer precipitation over the central Andes [46].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, most of the bias correction studies use the Taylor's diagram as a performance criterion for the final selection of the GCMs analyzed. Based on the multimodel ensemble of five (EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR) out of 31 CMIP5 GCMs, the Lake Titicaca basin projects an increase in austral summer precipitation below 8.2% for the 2034-2064 period relative to 1984-2014 under the RCP 8.5 scenario [46].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes

Sulca

Rocha

2021

Climate

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There are no studies related to the influence of the coupling between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern variability on future changes in the austral summer (December-February, DJF) precipitation over the central Andes. Therefore, we evaluated the historical simulations (1980–2005) and projections (2070–2099) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario of 25 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, we also consider the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) projections nested in three CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, and HadGEM2-ES) under RCP 8.5. We separate the CMIP5 GCMs according to their abilities to simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ for the historical period. We found that only three out of 25 CMIP5 GCMs (hereafter group A) simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ during the historical period. Although most CMIP5 GCM project DJF precipitation decreases over the central Andes, group A project precipitation increases related to the projected increase in deep convection over the central Peruvian Amazon. On the regional scale, only RegGFDL (nested in a group A CMIP5 GCM) projects a statistically significant increase in DJF precipitation (~5–15%) over the northern central Andes and the central Peruvian Amazon. Conversely, all RegCM4 simulations project a decrease in DJF precipitation (~−10%) over the southern central Andes.

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Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Droughts in the Lake Titicaca Basin

Cited by 26 publications

References 85 publications

Meteorological Drought Monitoring Based on Satellite CHIRPS Product over Gamo Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Meteorological Drought Monitoring Based on Satellite CHIRPS Product over Gamo Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Interdecadal variability of the austral summer precipitation over the Central Andes

Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes

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