Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system

Abstract

This is a pre-print version of: Offer, G.J., et al., Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system. Energy Policy (2009Policy ( ), doi:10.1016Policy ( /j.enpol.2009 AbstractThis paper compares battery electric vehicles (BEV) to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and hydrogen fuel cell plug-in hybrid vehicles (FCHEV). Qualitative comparisons of technologies and infrastructural requirements, and quantitative comparisons of the lifecycle cost of the powertrain over 100,000 miles are undertaken, accounting for capital and fuel costs. A common vehicle platform is assumed. The 2030 scenario is discussed and compared to a conventional gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrain. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis shows that in 2030 FCEVs could achieve lifecycle cost parity with conventional gasoline vehicles. However, both the BEV and FCHEV have significantly lower lifecycle costs. In the 2030 scenario, powertrain lifecycle costs of FCEVs range from $7,360 to $22,580, whereas those for BEVs range from $6,460 to $11,420 and FCHEVs, from $4,310 to $12,540. All vehicle platforms exhibit significant cost sensitivity to powertrain capital cost. The BEV and FCHEV are relatively insensitive to electricity costs but the FCHEV and FCV are sensitive to hydrogen cost. The BEV and FCHEV are reasonably similar in lifecycle cost and one may offer an advantage over the other depending on driving patterns. A key conclusion is that the best path for future development of FCEVs is the FCHEV.

Consumer structure in the emerging market for electric vehicles: Identifying market segments using cluster analysis

“…Examining the future cost trajectories of EV battery packs, Cluzel and Douglas (2012) find that, by 2030, costs of production have the potential to decrease to $215 per kilowatt hour with similar estimates noted by Offer et al (2010) who found that, by 2030, EVs have the potential to exhibit significantly lower lifecycle costs compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicle.…”

Comparative measurements of the energy consumption of 51 electric, hybrid and internal combustion engine vehicles

“…Figure 5 shows the resulting approximate equivalent CO 2 emissions in rank order from least to most with the results summarised in Table 4. Produced from steam reformed natural gas according to assumptions in (Offer, 2010) …”

Making markets for hydrogen vehicles: Lessons from LPG

“…Is this an attainable target for hydrogen? Offer et al [21] report predictions of the cost of hydrogen vehicles in 2010 and 2030, compared to battery electric and conventional (gasoline) vehicles. We follow their lead in concentrating on a hybrid hydrogen-electric vehicle, in which a battery is used to aid short-term acceleration, thus economising on the size of fuel cell required, and hydrogen is used at cruising speed, thus economising on the size of battery needed.…”

“…1 An anonymous referee has pointed out that a hydrogen economy could also use hydrogen in internal combustion engines, with somewhat lower efficiency but negating any problems in developing fuel cells. Source: derived from data in [21] All three of the break even distances (obtained by dividing the difference in capital costs by the difference in running cost per km) are below the critical level of around 40,000 km. However, we should consider the possibility that hydrogen vehicles develop less slowly than expected, or that the price of gasoline rises by less.…”