Comparación entre la Componente Atmosférica del Sistema HWRF y el Modelo WRF-HWRF Utilizando Diferentes Resoluciones Horizontales en la Simulación del Huracán Irma (2017). Parte I
Abstract:Resumen Se realizó un estudio de caso de varias configuraciones de modelos de pronóstico numérico para evaluar la habilidad de los mismos en el pronóstico de la intensidad y trayectoria de los ciclones tropicales. Para ello se seleccionaron 4 configuraciones del dominio de cómputo con 27-9 y 18-6 km de resolución para el HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) y 4 configuraciones para el WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model), empleando el núcleo dinámico NMM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Mo… Show more
“…Nonetheless, the corresponding vortex wind profile is generated from an analytic Rankine model [20]. Objectively, to simulate the behavior of the TCs with more exactitude, vortex formation schemes with realistic intensity and positioning are needed since this directly affects the trajectory, wind intensity and pressure errors [24]. On the other hand, to simulate wind waves during extreme events such as the tropical cyclones, it is recommended to use as an atmospheric forcing agent-a wind field with high resolution in time and space [25].…”
The impact of the high space-temporal variability of the wind field during the moderate and intense storm stages of a tropical cyclone on the wave field as computed by the numerical model WaveWatch III is investigated in this work. The realistic wind fields are generated by a high-resolution implementation of the HWRF model in the Gulf of Mexico and stored over 15 min intervals. The spatial structure of the wind field computed by HWRF is highly variable in space and time, although its mean structure is very similar to that described for parametric hurricanes already specified in the previous studies. The resulting storm-generated wave fields have a persistent structure, with wave maxima present in the forward quadrants of the storm and in the rear quadrant II. This structure is determined by the strong winds and the extended fetch condition in quadrants I and II, as well as by the translation speed of the storm. When a shorter time interval is analyzed (e.g., a 3 h period, when the storm becomes a category 1 hurricane), the structure of the mean wind field may differ greatly from the mean field calculated with a sufficiently longer period; however, the spatial distribution of the wave field around the hurricane tends to maintain its typical spatial structure. The use of wind fields with reduced time variability (e.g., with a 3 h moving average) does not change the structure of the mean wave field, but reduces the mean wave height values by up to 10%.
“…Nonetheless, the corresponding vortex wind profile is generated from an analytic Rankine model [20]. Objectively, to simulate the behavior of the TCs with more exactitude, vortex formation schemes with realistic intensity and positioning are needed since this directly affects the trajectory, wind intensity and pressure errors [24]. On the other hand, to simulate wind waves during extreme events such as the tropical cyclones, it is recommended to use as an atmospheric forcing agent-a wind field with high resolution in time and space [25].…”
The impact of the high space-temporal variability of the wind field during the moderate and intense storm stages of a tropical cyclone on the wave field as computed by the numerical model WaveWatch III is investigated in this work. The realistic wind fields are generated by a high-resolution implementation of the HWRF model in the Gulf of Mexico and stored over 15 min intervals. The spatial structure of the wind field computed by HWRF is highly variable in space and time, although its mean structure is very similar to that described for parametric hurricanes already specified in the previous studies. The resulting storm-generated wave fields have a persistent structure, with wave maxima present in the forward quadrants of the storm and in the rear quadrant II. This structure is determined by the strong winds and the extended fetch condition in quadrants I and II, as well as by the translation speed of the storm. When a shorter time interval is analyzed (e.g., a 3 h period, when the storm becomes a category 1 hurricane), the structure of the mean wind field may differ greatly from the mean field calculated with a sufficiently longer period; however, the spatial distribution of the wave field around the hurricane tends to maintain its typical spatial structure. The use of wind fields with reduced time variability (e.g., with a 3 h moving average) does not change the structure of the mean wave field, but reduces the mean wave height values by up to 10%.
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