Community Forests Prepare for Climate Change

Peterson, Courtney L.; Brandt, Leslie A.; Elias, Emile; Hurteau, Sarah R.

doi:10.1029/2021eo154456

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Some municipalities may wish to reduce the dominance of certain species that are considered to be vulnerable in favor of less common, less vulnerable trees. Many municipalities are already incorporating species vulnerability information into their planting lists (Peterson et al, 2021). Which species are appropriate will depend on the specific species composition of that area and the current and projected Heat and Hardiness zones for that particular place.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of Street Trees in Upper Midwest Cities to Climate Change

et al. 2021

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Urban trees play an important role in helping cities adapt to climate change, but also are vulnerable to changes in climate themselves. We developed an approach for assessing vulnerability of urban tree species and cultivars commonly planted in cities in the United States Upper Midwest to current and projected climate change through the end of the 21st century. One hundred seventy-eight tree species were evaluated for their adaptive capacity to a suite of current and future-projected climate and urban stressors using a weighted scoring system based on an extensive literature review. These scores were then evaluated and adjusted by leading experts in arboriculture in the region. Each species or cultivar’s USDA Hardiness Zone and American Horticultural Society Heat Zone tolerance was compared to current and future heat and hardiness zones for 14 municipalities across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota using statistically downscaled climate data. Species adaptive capacity and zone tolerance was combined to assign each species one of five vulnerability categories for each location. We determined the number of species and trees in each category based on the most recent municipal street tree data for each location. Under a scenario of less climate change (RCP 4.5), fewer than 2% of trees in each municipality were considered highly vulnerable across all 14 municipalities. Under a scenario of greater change (RCP 8.5), upward of 25% of trees were considered highly vulnerable in some locations. However, the number of vulnerable trees varied greatly by location, primarily because of differences in projected summer high temperatures rather than differences in species composition. Urban foresters can use this information as a complement to other more traditional considerations used when selecting trees for planting.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of Street Trees in Upper Midwest Cities to Climate Change

et al. 2021

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Global surface area receiving daily precipitation, wet-day frequency and probability of extreme rainfall: Water Security and Climate Change

Benestad,

Lussana,

Dobler

2023

Preprint

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Both the total amount of precipitation falling on Earth's surface and the fraction of the surface area on which it falls represent two key global climate indicators for Earth's global hydrological cycle. We show that the fraction of Earth's surface area receiving daily precipitation is closely connected to the global statistics of local wet-day frequency as well as mean precipitation intensity. Our analysis was based on the ERA5 reanalysis which also revealed a close link between the global mean of the mean precipitation intensity for each grid box and the total daily precipitation falling on Earth's surface divided by the global surface area fraction on which it falls. The wet-day frequency and the mean precipitation intensity are two important statistical indicators for inferring effects of climate change on society and nature as they represent key parameters that can be used to approximately infer the probability of heavy rainfall on local scales. We also found a close match between the global mean temperature and both the total planetary amount of precipitation and surface area in the ERA5 data, hinting at a dependency between the greenhouse effect and the global hydrological cycle. Hence, the total planetary precipitation and the daily precipitation area represent links between the global warming and extreme precipitation amounts that traditionally have not been included in sets of essential climate indicators.

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Community Forests Prepare for Climate Change

Abstract: Cities across the United States are feeling the heat as they struggle to integrate climate science into on-the-ground decisionmaking regarding urban tree planting and management.

Cited by 2 publications

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Vulnerability of Street Trees in Upper Midwest Cities to Climate Change

Vulnerability of Street Trees in Upper Midwest Cities to Climate Change

Global surface area receiving daily precipitation, wet-day frequency and probability of extreme rainfall: Water Security and Climate Change

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