OBJECTIVE -To simulate the outcomes of alternative strategies for screening the U.S. population 45-74 years of age for type 2 diabetes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We simulated screening with random plasma glucose (RPG) and cut points of 100, 130, and 160 mg/dl and a multivariate equation including RPG and other variables. Over 15 years, we simulated screening at intervals of 1, 3, and 5 years. All positive screening tests were followed by a diagnostic fasting plasma glucose or an oral glucose tolerance test. Outcomes include the numbers of false-negative, true-positive, and false-positive screening tests and the direct and indirect costs.RESULTS -At year 15, screening every 3 years with an RPG cut point of 100 mg/dl left 0.2 million false negatives, an RPG of 130 mg/dl or the equation left 1.3 million false negatives, and an RPG of 160 mg/dl left 2.8 million false negatives. Over 15 years, the absolute difference between the most sensitive and most specific screening strategy was 4.5 million true positives and 476 million false-positives. Strategies using RPG cut points of 130 mg/dl or the multivariate equation every 3 years identified 17.3 million true positives; however, the equation identified fewer false-positives. The total cost of the most sensitive screening strategy was $42.7 billion and that of the most specific strategy was $6.9 billion.CONCLUSIONS -Screening for type 2 diabetes every 3 years with an RPG cut point of 130 mg/dl or the multivariate equation provides good yield and minimizes false-positive screening tests and costs.
Diabetes Care 28:307-311, 2005I n the United States, the costs of diabetes are staggering. In 2002, the direct and indirect costs of diabetes were estimated to be $132 billion (1). The enormous cost of diabetes and the ease of detecting type 2 diabetes in its preclinical stage led the American Diabetes Association (ADA) to recommend screening asymptomatic persons Ն45 years of age for diabetes (2). Although the ADA currently recommends screening with a fasting plasma glucose (FPG), it had recommended screening with a random plasma glucose (RPG) as recently as 2000 (3). Indeed, RPG remains clinicians' preferred method of screening. Among nondiabetic individuals Ն45 years of age enrolled in a large managed care organization, 95% of glucose testing involved RPG (4). Despite the frequent occurrence of RPG screening, substantial controversy remains as to the optimal cut point to define an abnormal test (5) and the optimal frequency of screening. To address these questions, we modeled several systematic approaches to screening the U.S. population 45-74 years of age for diabetes. We assessed screening with RPG cut points of 100, 130, and 160 mg/dl and screening using RPG and other risk factors in a multivariate equation (6). We assessed screening at 1-, 3-, and 5-year intervals over 15 years. We assumed that all positive screening tests were followed by a definitive diagnostic test: an FPG for those with RPG Ն200 mg/dl and a 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) for those with ...