Communicating COVID-19 Exposure Risk with an Interactive Website Counteracts Risk Misestimation

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, individuals have depended on risk information to make decisions about everyday behaviors and public policy. In this online informational intervention, we assessed whether an interactive website influenced individuals' risk tolerance to support public health goals. We collected data from 10,891 unique users who interacted with the online COVID-19 Event Risk Tool (https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/), which featured interactive elements (a dynamic risk map, survey questions, and a risk quiz with accuracy feedback). After learning about the risk of COVID-19 exposure, participants reported being less willing to participate in potentially risky events. This increase in risk aversion was most pronounced for large event sizes and for individuals who had underestimated risk. We also uncovered a bias in risk estimation: Participants tended to overestimate the risk of small events, but underestimate the risk of large events. Our results bear implications for risk communication and insights for broader research on risky decision-making.

Scenario-Based Messages on Social Media Motivate COVID-19 Information Seeking

“…Note that the overall percentage of users who submitted responses on the website is low, likely because not all users consent to sharing their data and the interactive tools were less prominent on mobile view relative to desktop view (97.5% of users were redirected from the mobile Facebook application). However, the proportions observed were comparable to the proportion of website visitors who used the interactive tools during the four-month period prior to the ad campaign, as described in a prior report 39 . Thus, it seems that the users directed to the website by this particular set of ads showed similar engagement rates as users who self-directed to the website seeking information about COVID-19.…”

“…We calculated prevalence-based exposure risk as the estimated probability (ranging from <1% to >99%) that one or more individuals at an event of a given size is infected with SARS-CoV-2 1 . Additional information about risk calculation, website development, and the interactive tools are described in prior reports 38,39 . Participants were able to interact with the map by selecting various event sizes (ranging from 10 people to 5,000 people) and hovering over counties to view relevant statistics.…”

localcovid19now: processing and mapping COVID-19 case data at subnational scales

“…While individual perception of COVID-19 exposure risk is linked to utilization of risk-reducing actions, individual assessment of risk has been found to be generally uncorrelated to estimated exposure risk [21]. In contrast, communicating infection exposure risk estimates, as we do at the COVID-19 Event Risk Tool, has been shown as an effective intervention in realigning perceptions of localized event risks [21][22][23]. The package additionally includes functionality to help users visualize data (via leaflet [24] or tmap [25]), including that of per capita active documented infections and estimated event-based risk.…”

localcovid19now: processing and mapping COVID-19 case data at subnational scales

“…While individual perception of COVID-19 exposure risk is linked to the utilization of risk-reducing actions, individual assessment of risk has been found to be generally uncorrelated to estimated exposure risk . In contrast, communicating infection exposure risk estimates, as we do at the COVID-19 Event Risk Tool, has been shown as an effective intervention in realigning perceptions of localized event risks Sinclair et al, 2022). The package additionally includes functionality to help users visualize data (via leaflet (Cheng et al, 2021) or tmap (Tennekes, 2018)), including that of per capita active documented infections and estimated event-based risk.…”