Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation

Collier, Paul; Goderis, Benedikt

doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.04.002

Cited by 127 publications

(113 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Spatafora and Tytell (2009) looked at the effect of countryspecific commodity price cycles on more than 150 countries beginning in the early 1970s and found that median annual growth was nearly two percentage points higher during commodity price booms than busts. Collier and Goderis (2012) found an increase in commodity prices tended to have a short-run positive effect on growth, but the long-run effect was often negative, particularly for non-agricultural commodities and when the country was subject to bad governance. (Cavalcanti et al 2015) examined the relationship between economic growth and an index of commodity terms of trade for 118 countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does the commodities boom support the export led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Latin American countries

2016

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Commodity prices are characterized by boom and bust cycles. In this article, the impact of the commodity boom of the 2000s on Latin American and Caribbean economies is studied by analyzing four categories of commodity exports (agricultural raw materials, fuel, food, ore and minerals) as well as manufactured exports. Latin American and Caribbean economies had higher growth during the 2000s than in the period before the commodities boom. This study examines whether the higher growth was explained by the commodity boom, and if so, which of the different export commodities accounted for this higher growth. The findings should be relevant to understanding the effects on economic growth of a possible bust in commodity prices. The results show that ore and mineral exports, fuel exports and food exports generally had a negative effect on GDP per capita growth but ore and mineral exports had a positive effect on LAC countries during the boom. During the boom period, agricultural exports had negative effects, especially for LAC countries. Fuel exports had a positive effect on LAC and non-LAC countries during the boom. Manufacturing exports in general had a positive effect on economic growth, but in the boom period this effect almost disappeared for the LAC countries.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does the commodities boom support the export led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Latin American countries

2016

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“…These factors will be captured in the model through the vector t X , through policy variables such as domestic demand, inflation, external debt, domestic credit, gross investment, terms of trade capturing the changes in global prices and the real effective exchange rate (REER), among others. The vector t X also consists of a set of control variables that have been identified in the economic growth literature as important control variables in cross-country growth models [12]- [14]. These variables include investment, human capital and population growth [13].…”

Section: Methodology and Empirical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Long-Run Impact of Factors Driving Africa’s Recent Growth Performance: An Empirical Investigation

Chavula¹

2016

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The paper empirically examined the long-run impact of factors believed to have been driving Africa's recent growth performance, using the recent analytical methodology, the pooled mean group (PMG) approach, over the period 1980-2013. The results support the narrative that Africa's recent growth has mainly been driven by improved macroeconomic management associated with improved fiscal consolidation and monetary policy measures being undertaken by most African countries, the demographic influences as a result of increasing working-age population, trade especially as a result of relatively high commodity prices experienced over the period. However, the results show also that foreign debt, inflation rate and FDI (as a greater percentage is directed towards extractive industries) continue to weigh negatively on growth in the long-run.

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“…The literature suggests that natural resource dependence could be associated with corruption and poor governance (eg, Leite and Weidman, 1999;Gylfason and Zoega, 2002). Some analysts contend that countries with already good institutions will be able to more effectively leverage natural resource wealth for development (Collier and Goderis, 2012;Robinson et al, 2006). In addition, Aleexeev and Conrad (2009) find little empirical evidence that that oil or mineral wealth interacts positively with institutional quality.…”

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confidence: 99%