Commercial banks as monetary policy impetus conduits: Loans to non-financial organizations and the GDP

Abstract

Subject. This article simulates the impact of commercial banks as conduits of impetus transmitted by monetary policy to the economy, on economic growth in various countries in 2000–2020. The key task of modeling is to identify the impact of variability in the volume of bank loans provided to non-financial organizations on GDP. Objectives. The article aims to contribute to the discussion on the role of commercial banks and bank loans to non-financial organizations in the implementation of monetary policy and the achievement of the goal of economic growth. Methods. For the study, I used a new mathematical apparatus that differs from the classical econometric approach. Results. The article proposes a model of the impact of bank loans to non-financial organizations on GDP, which helps determine two management scenarios: sustainable unidirectional (positive) impact of growth in indicators of bank lending to non-financial organizations on GDP for a certain period or periods; complete absence of control actions. Conclusions. The article concludes that different countries implement either the first management scenario or the second one to achieve the goals of economic growth.