Comments on “Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations”

Smith, Doug; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Fereday, David; Hermanson, Leon; Murphy, James M.; Pohlmann, Holger; Robinson, Niall; Scaife, Adam A.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00220.1

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…They pointed out, though, that the model skill arises in large part from the persistence of the SST in the initialized forecasts (Figure ), rather than due to the prediction of the system evolution per se . This has been debated in the literature . More recently, Caron et al showed that multi‐year prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity by CMIP5 models in hindcast mode had modest positive skill, even after accounting for persistence in the climate shift that occurred in 1994–1995.…”

Section: Current State‐of‐the‐art Global Climate Models: From Intraseasonal To Decadal Time Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This has been debated in the literature. 153,154 More recently, Caron et al 155 showed that multi-year prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity by CMIP5 models in hindcast mode had modest positive skill, even after accounting for persistence in the climate shift that occurred in 1994-1995. The potential for predicting possible wind damage related to hurricanes along the U.S. coast using a multi-model ensemble of initialized global climate models has also been recently demonstrated.…”

Section: Current State-of-the-art Global Climate Models: From Intraseasonal To Decadal Time Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical cyclones in climate models

Camargo

Wing

2015

WIREs Climate Change

116

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In this review, we provide a historical overview of the simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in climate models, from the first attempts in the 1970s to the current state-of-the-art models. We discuss the status of TC simulation across multiple time scales, from intraseasonal, seasonal, and decadal, to climate change. One of the limitations on the simulation of TCs in climate models has been, and continues to be, balancing the high resolution necessary to accurately simulate TCs themselves with the need to run simulations for many years and using many ensemble members. Several approaches to inferring TC activity indirectly, rather than relying on the models own under-resolved TCs, are reviewed, including the use of TC genesis indices based on the large-scale environment and downscaling methods such as the use of regional climate models and statistical-dynamical techniques. We also provide an update on the status of climate change projections from the current class of models, where it is feasible to directly track the model's TCs. While there has been great progress in the capability of climate models to simulate TCs and provide useful forecasts and projections across multiple time scales, there remains much work to be done. We list some of the sources of uncertainty and model sensitivity, describe where improvements are necessary, and provide a few suggestions for promising research directions. of the development of a tropical cyclone in ECHAM3 with resolution T106 (left panel) and T42 (right panel). (Adapted from Ref 17 with permission. Made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC_BY) License) Advanced Review wires.wiley.com/climatechange 214

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Section: Current State‐of‐the‐art Global Climate Models: From Intraseasonal To Decadal Time Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Current State-of-the-art Global Climate Models: From Intraseasonal To Decadal Time Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclones in climate models

Camargo

Wing

2015

WIREs Climate Change

116

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“…This is consistent with the observed composites (Figure 3, left column) and in a region where there is some correlation skill (Figure 3, middle column). Previous studies suggest a link between SPG temperatures and the frequency of Atlantic tropical storms [ Goldenberg et al ., 2001; Smith et al ., 2010, 2014; Dunstone et al ., 2011]. We therefore also investigate predictions of Atlantic tropical storms.…”

Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Initialization of ocean dynamics was shown to be crucial for predicting the two major changes in the SPG that have occurred since 1960, namely, a cooling during the 1960s and a warming in mid-1990s [Yeager et al, 2012;Robson et al, 2013Robson et al, , 2014b. Furthermore, some of the resultant climate impacts may have also been predictable in the periods following these changes, including precipitation changes in parts of North and South America, European temperatures, and Atlantic hurricane frequency [Robson et al, 2013[Robson et al, , 2014bSmith et al, 2014;Müller et al, 2014].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts

Hermanson

Eade

Robinson

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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Decadal variability in the North Atlantic and its subpolar gyre (SPG) has been shown to be predictable in climate models initialized with the concurrent ocean state. Numerous impacts over ocean and land have also been identified. Here we use three versions of the Met Office Decadal Prediction System to provide a multimodel ensemble forecast of the SPG and related impacts. The recent cooling trend in the SPG is predicted to continue in the next 5 years due to a decrease in the SPG heat convergence related to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We present evidence that the ensemble forecast is able to skilfully predict these quantities over recent decades. We also investigate the ability of the forecast to predict impacts on surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, and Atlantic tropical storms and compare the forecast to recent boreal summer climate.

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“…Part of the skill found in the Ini forecasts comes from predicting the two large shifts that occurred over the period of study: a downward shift in 1970 and an upward shift in 1995. There has been some debate in the literature as to whether the shifts between quiet and active regimes can be predicted or whether most of the detected skill originates simply from persisting the initial conditions [ Vecchi et al , ; Smith et al , ]. Following Vecchi et al [], we investigate whether forecasts initialized in the years leading up to the shifts produced an AMV index averaged in years 2–6 that were larger (1995 shift) or lower (1970 shift) than that of year 1.…”

Section: Predictability or Persistence?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential

Caron

Hermanson

Doblas‐Reyes

2015

Geophysical Research Letters

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There are strong decadal variations in Atlantic hurricane activity, with an active period in the 1950s and 1960s, a quiescent period from the 1970s through the early 1990s and a resurgence in activity since the mid‐1990s. Using an index that relies on subpolar gyre temperature and subtropical sea level pressure, two quantities with links to hurricane activity, we show that it is possible to construct reliable 5 year mean forecasts of both basin‐wide tropical cyclone activity as well as wind energy associated with hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline. Furthermore, the index is capable of reproducing the major decadal shifts in activity observed over the last 50 years. This is the first time that a forecast system shows significant skill of a landfalling hurricane characteristic at the multiannual time scale and, as such, shows great promise as a valuable climate service product.

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Comments on “Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations”

Cited by 4 publications

References 9 publications

Tropical cyclones in climate models

Tropical cyclones in climate models

Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts

Multiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential

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