Commentary: Measuring excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: progress and persistent challenges

Helleringer, Stéphane; Queiroz, Bernardo Lanza

doi:10.1093/ije/dyab260

Cited by 38 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…As far as current empirical limitations allow them to be quantified, more than 20% of global excess deaths to date might have occurred in India, where an understanding of the scale of the pandemic is slowly emerging, and possibly another 30% in countries where there is hardly any reliable source to evaluate the local situation. As the results suggest substantial mortality reversals in many parts of Asia, and possibly Africa as well, of a magnitude rarely observed since 1950, the need for better monitoring mortality trends in these countries cannot be overemphasized (Helleringer and Lanza Queiroz 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…In other countries, however, deaths due to Covid-19 may be more frequently misdiagnosed and under-reported and pandemic-mitigation policies might have induced greater changes in deaths from other causes. Numbers of "excess deaths"-the difference between the actual number of deaths and the number of deaths expected to have occurred in the absence of the pandemic (based on pre-pandemic trends)-would provide a fuller account of the mortality impact of the pandemic (Helleringer and Lanza Queiroz 2021). While imperfect, extant estimates suggests that the number of excess deaths might be two to four times the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 and that the bulk of these excess deaths likely occurred outside of Europe and the other high-income nations in which the mortality impact of the pandemic has been extensively documented (The Economist 2022).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End-of-2021 Assessment

Heuveline

2022

Preprint

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Timely, high-quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of Covid-19 on life expectancies in upper-middle- and high-income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic-induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by .92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another .72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12-month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed in rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub-Saharan African nations at the peak of the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End-of-2021 Assessment

Heuveline

2022

Preprint

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show abstract

“…As far as current empirical limitations allow them to be quantified, more than 20 percent of global excess deaths to date might have occurred in India, where an understanding of the scale of the pandemic is slowly emerging, and possibly another 30 percent in countries where there is hardly any reliable source to evaluate the local situation. As the results suggest substantial mortality reversals in many parts of Asia, and possibly Africa as well, of a magnitude rarely observed since 1950, the need for better monitoring mortality trends in these countries cannot be overemphasized (Helleringer and Lanza Queiroz 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In other countries, however, deaths due to COVID‐19 may be more frequently misdiagnosed and underreported, and pandemic‐mitigation policies might have induced greater changes in deaths from other causes. Numbers of “excess deaths”—the difference between the actual number of deaths and the number of deaths expected to have occurred in the absence of the pandemic (based on prepandemic trends)—would provide a fuller account of the mortality impact of the pandemic (Helleringer and Lanza Queiroz 2021). While imperfect, extant estimates suggest that the number of excess deaths might be two to four times the number of deaths officially attributed to COVID‐19 and that the bulk of these excess deaths likely occurred outside of Europe and the other high‐income nations in which the mortality impact of the pandemic has been extensively documented (Adam 2022; The Economist 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment

Heuveline¹

2022

Population & Development Rev

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Timely, high‐quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on life expectancies in upper‐middle‐ and high‐income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic‐induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12‐month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed on rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub‐Saharan African nations at the peak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pandemic.

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“…The final two papers in this Genus thematic series, Dorrington et al ( 2021 ) and Lima et al ( 2021 ), document technical challenges and practical solutions to analyzing excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in countries where death registration is incomplete—namely Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. Such analyses have informed public understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic and shaped policy responses (Agrawal et al, 2021 ; Clarke et al, 2021 ; Goldstein & Lee, 2020 ; Helleringer & Queiroz, 2021 ; Polyakova et al, 2020 ; Viglione, 2020 ). Both papers highlight the importance of timely, public dissemination of death registration data to support continuous assessment of the completeness and quality of the registration data and updates on the mortality effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.…”

Section: The Use Of Incomplete and Deficient Death Registration Data ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Population perspectives and demographic methods to strengthen CRVS systems: introduction

Silva

2022

Genus

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Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems and legal identity systems have become increasingly recognized as catalytic both for inclusive development and for monitoring population dynamics spanning the entire life course. Population scientists have a long history of contributing to the strengthening of CRVS and legal identity systems and of using vital registration data to understand population and development dynamics. This paper provides an overview of the Genus thematic series on CRVS systems. The series spans 11 research articles that document new insights on the registration of births, marriages, separations/divorces, deaths and legal residency. This introductory article to the series reviews the importance of population perspectives and demographic methods in strengthening CRVS systems and improving our understanding of population dynamics across the lifecourse. The paper highlights the major contributions from this thematic series and discusses emerging challenges and future research directions on CRVS systems for the population science community.

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Commentary: Measuring excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: progress and persistent challenges

Cited by 38 publications

References 28 publications

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End-of-2021 Assessment

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End-of-2021 Assessment

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment

Population perspectives and demographic methods to strengthen CRVS systems: introduction

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