Commander–community ties after civil war

Abstract

Ex-rebel military commanders play a central role in peacebuilding after civil war. Yet the influence and mobilization power of these actors is not uniform: in some areas commanders retain strong ties to civilian populations after war’s end, while in other areas such ties wither away. This article analyses a novel dataset of former rebel-occupied localities in Côte d’Ivoire to investigate why commander–community linkages endure or decline after post-conflict transitions. The findings support a theory of political accountability: commanders retained political capital and access to networks of supporters in areas where insurgents provided essential goods to civilians during war. By contrast, where insurgents’ wartime rule involved abuse and coercion, commanders were less likely to sustain strong ties. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that violent warlordism explains the persistence of rebel commanders’ power in peacetime. Rather, effective wartime governance may create regionally embedded strongmen who can in turn disrupt postwar state-building.

The Political Legacies of Rebel Rule: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Côte d’Ivoire

“…For example, Kubota (2017) argues that governance by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelan (LTTE) in Sri Lanka supplanted and co-opted state institutions, creating impediments to citizen trust and identification with the post-conflict government. Martin et al (2021a) and Martin (2021) similarly found that many rebel-occupied communities in Côte d'Ivoire continued to rely on ex-rebel actors for informal services and protection, crowding out the role of redeployed police forces. Rebel rule can also bolster community-based institutions and patterns of local collective action in response to service shortfalls (Barter, 2016;Mampilly, 2011;Wood, 2008).…”

Wartime governance and state-building trajectories in post-conflict societies

“…Kubota (2017) shows that civilian identity (Tamil versus Sri Lankan) in northern and eastern areas of Sri Lanka is considerably shaped by how local populations perceive the legitimacy of state-like functions performed by the LTTE during the war. Improved legitimacy and capacity by armed groups may also ensure that civilians do not leave recently controlled territories, as Revkin (2021) shows for the case of the Islamic State in Mosul, and may also strengthen ties between armed group commanders and local communities in the post-war period (Martin 2021). Perceptions of legitimacy about the state-like roles of armed groups during wartime are important also because they define state-military-citizen relations in the post-war period.…”

Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka

“…The civil war reached a stalemate in mid-2003, which led to the establishment of a UNsupervised demilitarised zone that left 60% of the country under rebel control. 52 Following a period of 'no war, no peace', the civil war ended in massive bloodshed when the 2010 presidential election triggered masselectoral violence and the FN captured the economic capital Abidjan. 53 State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in northern Côte d'Ivoire started in 2003 and deepened incrementally.…”