Combining the qualitative and quantitative with the Q2 scenario technique — The case of transport and climate

Varho, Vilja; Tapio, Petri

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.004

Cited by 93 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Scenario analysis strives to systematically explore, create, and test consistent alternative states of the future operational environment (Amer et al 2013;Varho and Tapio 2013). By means of forcing to consider possible structural changes, scenarios create a strong link to strategies through systematic management of uncertainty (Wang and Lan 2007).…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Hurmekoski¹

2016

Diss. For.

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The aim of the study is to examine the factors affecting the market potential of wood construction in Europe towards 2030. The study takes three complementary perspectives: Past trends and current structures, future trends and uncertainties and measures required to meet the long-term targets of the industries.The methodological framework builds on combining quantitative, descriptive and participative research approaches. By adopting methods and approaches from the field of foresight, the study aims to contribute also to the methodology development for long-term forest sector outlook studies.The trends and pressures in the operating environment of construction were found to primarily relate to the need for reducing the environmental impact of construction and improving the quality and productivity of construction. However, few of the trends would appear to have decisive impact on the diffusion of wood construction. That is, the positive drivers might not translate into improved competitive advantage for wood construction to the extent often expected, due to the lack of willingness or ability to pay for the attributes exceeding the requirements posed by the building regulations. Instead, the cultural and structural hindrances culminating to the fragmented structure and risk-averse characteristics of the construction and wood products industries seem to create significant inertia for the diffusion of wood construction.Based on scenario analysis, the outlook would appear to be dependent on the possible regulatory push for green building and on the possible changes in the strategic orientations of the industries. However, the empirical part indicated that the short-term strategy and policy measures suggested by experts are regarded either as unlikely or as unattractive by the industry stakeholders. The results therefore suggest that the diffusion of wood construction in Europe is likely to be a gradual process, subject to significant inertia, and restricted to a few niche sub-sectors and regions towards 2030.

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Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Hurmekoski¹

2016

Diss. For.

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“…This is a bounded envelope of probability that covers the range of plausible outcomes. 2 Environmental and emission scenarios are used in contexts where dynamic complex systems are subject to uncertainties.…”

Section: Applying Scenario Analysis To Energy and Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ordering of driving forces through themes and trends within the scenarios is achieved using the logics provided by the axes and exploration of the other driving forces. It can be illustrated by a table of change in key variables or ´futures table´ [2], documenting key assumptions [22] or the main features of scenario development paths [53]. These lead to the draft narratives that inform the quantitative modelling process.…”

Section: Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As an example, the process used in generating scenarios for Ireland to 2020 is presented from [1]. As per Varho and Tapio [2], most of the required tools and techniques are well documented but the combination is novel, particularly in the context of short term scenarios. In this paper Section 2 discusses forecast accuracy and section 3 discusses methodological issues in developing short term energy and related emission scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrated scenarios for energy: A methodology for the short term

Mahony¹

2014

Futures

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Quantitative point forecasts of energy and emissions have experienced difficulty with responding to uncertainty. Accuracy issues arise even in the short term with consequences for policy. The technique of scenario analysis is increasingly applied in scientific inquiry on the long term but it also has utility in the short term. This paper presents a discussion of the use of forecasts for prediction and proposes integrated or ´hybrid´ exploratory qualitative and quantitative scenarios in its stead. Various methodological issues are explored towards formulation of a scenario development process. Integrated scenarios structure thinking on the future, bound uncertainty, document important assumptions, aid communication, widen perspectives, can explore new dynamics and permit the exploration of ´softer´ issues in development paths such as governance, social and cultural drivers. These can be crucial to outcomes but are not captured by quantitative approaches alone. An example of the technique employed to construct integrated scenarios for Ireland to 2020 is presented, which as a process is applicable with diverse quantitative techniques. The advancement of more broad holistic perspectives on development and processes of change is policy relevant in all states, for which purpose integrated scenarios are an ideal analysis and mainstreaming tool even on short time scales.

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“…This view is supported by Wang and Lan [58], who suggest a combined forecast process to obtain improved forecasts. Varho and Tapio [57] also suggest combining qualitative and quantitative techniques to obtain improved forecasts. In addition, Lawrence [32] points out that future research in forecasting should focus on understanding the business needs of forecasting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%