Combining participatory scenario planning and systems modeling to identify drivers of future sustainability on the Mongolian Plateau

Abstract

. 2018. Combining participatory scenario planning and systems modeling to identify drivers of future sustainability on the Mongolian Plateau. Ecology and Society 23 (2) ABSTRACT. The study of social-ecological systems (SES) is an inherently interdisciplinary endeavor that necessitates collaboration among multiple researchers and stakeholders. These collaborations often result in novel insights into the dynamics and feedbacks that occur within these systems. Achieving these insights requires methods and tools that integrate diverse knowledge from multiple disciplines and sectors of society to inform actionable research on complex systems. Past research has demonstrated the contributions that stakeholders can make to defining scenarios that are subsequently applied to quantitative modeling. Here, we focus on the feedback from quantitative modeling to refinement and interpretation of scenarios, and demonstrate how quantitative modeling can reveal aspects of system dynamics that were not considered during scenario development. We present a case study in which we use qualitative scenario planning as a tool to engender systems thinking by a diverse set of stakeholders in a complex transboundary SES: the Mongolian Plateau. This exercise demonstrated the value of participatory scenario planning as a tool for facilitating interdisciplinary and crosssectoral dialog and knowledge generation. It also ensured the integration of place-based knowledge into scenario development for subsequent quantitative modeling. In addition to incorporating stakeholder knowledge in simulation of complex human-environment dynamics, the quantitative modeling revealed how the dynamics of rural out-migration contribute to the decoupling of rural herder populations and livestock numbers. The emergent knowledge gained from this process underscores the utility of pairing the qualitative scenarios with quantitative simulations to reveal unanticipated system behavior and key drivers not identified or overlooked by stakeholders.

Advancing landscape sustainability science: theoretical foundation and synergies with innovations in methodology, design, and application

“…In particular, SDMs can be used to synthesize different data types to investigate socialecological systems where socioeconomic and environmental changes interact with each other to influence human decision-making in land use and natural resource management (Rasmussen et al 2012). The simulated results on the trajectories of key variables over time, as well as their interaction patterns, shed light on major system characteristics (Allington et al 2018). However, current SDMs are generally limited in its spatial capacity (He et al 2005), and spatializing (or pixelizing) SDMs presents as an important topic for future research that will contribute to LSS.…”

“…In these contexts, results simulated under different scenarios allow researchers to explore future ecosystem services (Bohensky et al 2006), and examine climate change adaptation at different spatial scales (Ernst and van Riemsdijk 2013;Liao et al 2016). In addition, adopting the scenario-based approach in the research process can facilitate participation of diverse stakeholders from different disciplines and social backgrounds to think and collaborate with each other to address a question of mutual interest (Allington et al 2018). Scenario-based approach can be further integrated with simulation models and other quantitative tools to enrich its quantitative and spatial capacities.…”

Enhancing Autonomy for Climate Change Adaptation Using Participatory Modeling

“…A clear example of the neoliberal approach is Vlachos et al (2007), who apply participatory modeling to identify trade-offs and cobenefits of management decisions on the efficiency of supply chains. Allington et al (2018) use participatory modeling to foster dialogue and enhance collaboration between affected stakeholders in socioecological systems, constituting a deliberative approach. Applying participatory modeling as a tool for creating dialogue between parties with different interests and identifying better decisions through a plurality of perspectives represents a combination of deliberative and neoliberal approaches taken by Videira et al (2009).…”

“…When problematic interpersonal interactions manifest in conversations and debates, facilitators need to be able to mediate and ensure division does not dominate the process (Butler and Adamowski 2015). It is also important to create an environment in which participants are encouraged to reflect and evaluate the facilitation process (Allington et al 2018). 6) In cases in which it is not possible or pragmatic for representatives of marginalized stakeholder groups to drive the process, participatory modelers working with marginalized stakeholder groups need to be aware of the underlying hegemonic relationships between participants, and be intentional about counterhegemonic actions to shift power dynamics (Rubin et al 2016).…”

“…Facilitating transdisciplinary multistakeholder participation processes can be challenging, and potential enabling factors as well as barriers are discussed in Bracken et al (2015). A useful resource specifically in the art and pitfalls of consensus building can be found in van de Kerkhof (2006), while Allington et al (2018) provide an effective method for allowing participants to evaluate and reflect the participatory mapping process.…”