Combining Expert Opinions

Hr, Arkes; Jl, Manpower; Tr, Stewart

doi:10.1126/science.275.5299.461e

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Helmer, Dalkey, and Rescher at the RAND Corporation formalized the method in the 1950s for science and technology forecasting (42). It has been applied successfully and with high consistency and rigor across many disciplines including health and education (43)(44)(45)(46).…”

Section: Approach To Evaluating Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Burden and Disease Costs of Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union

Trasande

Zoeller

Hass

et al. 2015

The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism

298

229

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Section: Approach To Evaluating Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Burden and Disease Costs of Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union

Trasande

Zoeller

Hass

et al. 2015

The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism

298

229

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“…Each of the original seven consortium members reviewed the original reaction grid and their expertise was incorporated using a method termed "expert elicitation". 29 Sample results of expert elicitation for five impurity/reaction pairs are shown in Table 2. If five or more members agreed on a particular reactivity purge factor, this was considered to be a consensus for that value.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each of the original seven consortium members reviewed the original reaction grid and their expertise was incorporated using a method termed “expert elicitation” …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The initial prototype version of Mirabilis (version 1.0) was released to the consortium in late 2014. This version included a model for determining reactivity purge factors, derived by expert elicitation (a defined form of knowledge sharing) based on a consortium-wide consensus view of the purging potential of prioritized classes of PMIs, in various reaction scenarios. This work led to the identification of gaps in knowledge, which in turn led to additional experimental work to assess the underlying reactivity and reaction kinetics of a variety of PMI structural classes under particular reaction conditions in downstream processing steps, even in cases where the PMI is not intentionally present.…”

Section: Mirabilismentioning

confidence: 99%

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New Semi-Automated Computer-Based System for Assessing the Purge of Mutagenic Impurities

Burns

Ott

Teasdale

et al. 2019

Org. Process Res. Dev.

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The ICH M7 guidance provides a series of flexible control options for the control of (potentially) mutagenic impurities (PMIs) that fully align with key risk-based principles. This includes option 4, which leverages existing process knowledge and/or data to justify control of PMIs without the need for routine analytical release testing during manufacturing. One such technique highlighted uses systematic, semiquantitative calculations to define the degree of "purge" of PMIs within a synthetic route to an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) based on physicochemical properties of the impurities in question, and the manufacturing process being undertaken. This paper introduces a consortium-led initiative, Mirabilis, which aims to build on the semiquantitative purge approach, and harmonize industry best practices by enabling the calculations to be conducted in a standardized, consistent, and reproducible manner. The development of an expert-derived knowledge base for the prediction of reactivity by enhancing expert opinion using evidence derived from the published literature and experimental data is also discussed. Furthermore, this paper describes the application of Mirabilis software for the processes involved in the synthesis of verubecestat, naloxegol oxalate, and camicinal.

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“…To this end, expert elicitation (Ref. 21) can provide a formal approach to help in reaching such judgments.…”

Section: Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rotorcraft Aeromechanics: Getting through the Dip

Leishman¹

2010

j am helicopter soc

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The development of significantly better performing helicopters and new types of rotorcraft will require that the subject of aeromechanics be mastered to a much higher level than it is now. A future goal must be to acquire a true predictive capability for problems in aeromechanics that are free of modeling contradictions. It is argued that we have reached a "dip" in the progress of furthering the capabilities of the helicopter and also in our abilities to innovate new forms of rotorcraft with sufficiently high levels of confidence and robustness in their design. This dip can be correlated to a large extent with our compromised capabilities in truly understanding the multiplicity of problems in aeromechanics, and in the inability to design-out the perceived "barrier" problems that limit, in some manner or other, the flight capabilities of all types of rotorcraft. In this context, it is postulated that such a dip coincides with a "comfort zone," where we have some factual knowledge of the physical problems but still mostly a tacit understanding and a postdictive (i.e., after the fact) modeling capability. On the other side of the dip is an improved paradigm where we have mastered the problems by having a fundamental scientific understanding and gaining a predictive capability of high confidence. Getting through the dip requires an invigorated investment in advanced rotorcraft research that will have more revolutionary outcomes if imaginative design solutions are to follow. Our overarching objective should be to make sound engineering design decisions based on validated models of aeromechanics that have verifiable predictive capabilities. To this end, it is argued that we must strive for mastery of the necessary understanding by using a much better balance of all of the tools available to us, including existing data, theory, numerical models, and the best types of new experiments that we can possibly devise, the latter which must encompass ambitious laboratory experiments, wind tunnel testing, and flight tests of new prototype vehicles. The extraordinary changes needed for advancement mean that we cannot continue to root our research in the comfort zone of only tentative or calibrated understanding, and so retaining only limited abilities to comprehend aeromechanical anomalies and resolve ever more challenging engineering crises. Finite resources will also dictate that we continue to work more efficiently to generalize both current and new knowledge of aeromechanics into much more useful forms, and to act aggressively to eliminate any efforts that are not aligned with the authentic purpose of improving the understanding of all rotorcraft and their component systems.

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Combining Expert Opinions

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Estimating Burden and Disease Costs of Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union

Estimating Burden and Disease Costs of Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union

New Semi-Automated Computer-Based System for Assessing the Purge of Mutagenic Impurities

Rotorcraft Aeromechanics: Getting through the Dip

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