Combined and intraoperative risk modelling for oesophagectomy: A systematic review

Grantham, James Paul; Hii, Amanda; Shenfine, Jonathan

doi:10.4240/wjgs.v15.i7.1485

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 64 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…It has been widely acknowledged that the SAS enables surgeons and anesthesiologists to recognize patients at a higher risk for certain complications or adverse events ( 7 ). In our previous study, we built a nomogram system based on the eSAS, and it was demonstrated to be a highly practicable and powerful model for assessing postoperative complications ( 9 , 24 ). However, its potential clinical benefit as a triage system still required confirmation by a prospective study ( 5 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An esophagectomy surgical Apgar score-based nomogram—a risk-based postoperative triage system: a phase II randomised trial

Chen,

Xi,

Lin

et al. 2024

J Thorac Dis

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Background The esophagectomy surgical Apgar score (eSAS) has been found to be a predictor of postoperative complications in esophagectomy. In our previous study, we built a graphic nomogram based on eSAS and demonstrated that it can effectively predict the risk of major morbidity after esophagectomy. In this study, we aimed to assess the benefits of using an eSAS-based nomogram model as a postoperative risk-based triage system for patients undergoing esophagectomy. Methods We enrolled 119 patients diagnosed with esophageal carcinoma and randomly assigned them to a nomogram group (NG) or control group (CG) from January 2019 to December 2020. Patients in the NG were assigned to a low-risk group and high-risk group based on the nomogram. Patients in the high-risk group were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after esophagectomy. Risk estimation in the CG patients was based on the surgeon’s clinical experience. Thirty-day major complications, postoperative hospital stay, hospital costs, and quality of life (QOL) during the follow-up were compared between the two groups. Results Baseline clinicopathological characteristics were comparable between the NG (n=58) and CG (n=61). All patients underwent esophagectomy. Postoperative complications were significantly higher in the CG (30, 49.2%) than in the NG (14, 24.1%) (P=0.008), with pneumonia being the most common (CG: 23, 37.7%; NG: 12, 20.7%; P=0.042). There was no significant difference in anastomotic leakage (NG: 1, 1.7%; CG: 6, 9.8%; P=0.12). Postoperative median hospital stay was shorter in the NG (14 days) than in the CG (16 days) (P=0.041). Hospital costs (NG: ¥60,045.1; CG: ¥63,961.5; P=0.21) and postoperative QOL did not differ significantly between groups. Conclusions An eSAS-based nomogram as a triage system can reduce the overall occurrence of postoperative complications and shorten postoperative hospital stay without increasing hospital costs. Trial Registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR1900021636.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An esophagectomy surgical Apgar score-based nomogram—a risk-based postoperative triage system: a phase II randomised trial

Chen,

Xi,

Lin

et al. 2024

J Thorac Dis

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A systematic review of cardiac surgery clinical prediction models that include intra-operative variables

Jones,

Taylor,

Sperrin

et al. 2024

Perfusion

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Background Most cardiac surgery clinical prediction models (CPMs) are developed using pre-operative variables to predict post-operative outcomes. Some CPMs are developed with intra-operative variables, but none are widely used. The objective of this systematic review was to identify CPMs with intra-operative variables that predict short-term outcomes following adult cardiac surgery. Methods Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched from inception to December 2022, for studies developing a CPM with at least one intra-operative variable. Data were extracted using a critical appraisal framework and bias assessment tool. Model performance was analysed using discrimination and calibration measures. Results A total of 24 models were identified. Frequent predicted outcomes were acute kidney injury (9/24 studies) and peri-operative mortality (6/24 studies). Frequent pre-operative variables were age (18/24 studies) and creatinine/eGFR (18/24 studies). Common intra-operative variables were cardiopulmonary bypass time (16/24 studies) and transfusion (13/24 studies). Model discrimination was acceptable for all internally validated models (AUC 0.69-0.91). Calibration was poor (15/24 studies) or unreported (8/24 studies). Most CPMs were at a high or indeterminate risk of bias (23/24 models). The added value of intra-operative variables was assessed in six studies with statistically significantly improved discrimination demonstrated in two. Conclusion Weak reporting and methodological limitations may restrict wider applicability and adoption of existing CPMs that include intra-operative variables. There is some evidence that CPM discrimination is improved with the addition of intra-operative variables. Further work is required to understand the role of intra-operative CPMs in the management of cardiac surgery patients.

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Revisiting Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) Scores: Are They Valid in Cases of Ileal Perforation?

Eswaravaka,

Suhrid,

Rao

et al. 2024

Cureus

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IntroductionIleal perforation due to typhoid is common in tropical countries, and the ensuing secondary peritonitis is treated by resuscitation and surgery. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) was developed to predict postoperative outcomes to overcome systemic obstacles in any healthcare setup and is considered fairly accurate. The Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score was developed as a corrective scoring system for overestimations made by the POSSUM score vis-à-vis mortality. Our study aimed to examine the validity of these two scores in the postoperative prediction of surgical outcomes in patients with ileal perforation. Materials and methodsAn observational study involving 40 patients diagnosed with ileal perforations was undertaken over 18 months. The postoperative outcome for each patient was calculated as per the POSSUM and P-POSSUM parameters. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY) and the results were tabulated. ResultsWe found that age, gender, respiratory dysfunction, propensity for multiple surgeries, duration of surgery, co-morbidities, underlying malignancy, and systolic blood pressure played a significant role in determining postoperative outcomes. Haemoglobin, potassium, and urea levels were also found to be significantly associated with outcome. Cardiac signs, pulse, white blood cell count, Glasgow Coma Scale score, sodium, and electrocardiography, part of the physiological score parameters, were found to be insignificant in the prediction of postoperative outcomes. Among the intraoperative parameters, peritoneal soiling was found to be insignificant. ConclusionSome parameters inherent to POSSUM and P-POSSUM calculations appear to bear no statistical significance to the final score, highlighting that these need to be revisited and perhaps modified to further simplify the calculation. The POSSUM score is an excellent predictor of postoperative morbidity and mortality in ileal perforation patients but is of questionable reliability due to its tendency to overestimate them. P-POSSUM has a better predictive power of postoperative mortality by correcting POSSUM mortality overestimation.

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Combined and intraoperative risk modelling for oesophagectomy: A systematic review

Cited by 3 publications

References 64 publications

An esophagectomy surgical Apgar score-based nomogram—a risk-based postoperative triage system: a phase II randomised trial

An esophagectomy surgical Apgar score-based nomogram—a risk-based postoperative triage system: a phase II randomised trial

A systematic review of cardiac surgery clinical prediction models that include intra-operative variables

Revisiting Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) Scores: Are They Valid in Cases of Ileal Perforation?

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