Combating Obesity through Healthy Eating Behavior: A Call for System Dynamics Optimization

Abstract

Poor eating behavior has been identified as one of the core contributory factors of the childhood obesity epidemic. The consequences of obesity on numerous aspects of life are thoroughly explored in the existing literature. For instance, evidence shows that obesity is linked to incidences of diseases such as heart disease, type-2 diabetes, and some cancers, as well as psychosocial problems. To respond to the increasing trends in the UK, in 2008 the government set a target to reverse the prevalence of obesity (POB) back to 2000 levels by 2020. This paper will outline the application of system dynamics (SD) optimization to simulate the effect of changes in the eating behavior of British children (aged 2 to 15 years) on weight and obesity. This study also will identify how long it will take to achieve the government’s target. This paper proposed a simulation model called Intervention Childhood Obesity Dynamics (ICOD) by focusing the interrelations between various strands of knowledge in one complex human weight regulation system. The model offers distinct insights into the dynamics by capturing the complex interdependencies from the causal loop and feedback structure, with the intention to better understand how eating behaviors influence children’s weight, body mass index (BMI), and POB measurement. This study proposed a set of equations that are revised from the original (baseline) equations. The new functions are constructed using a RAMP function of linear decrement in portion size and number of meal variables from 2013 until 2020 in order to achieve the 2020 desired target. Findings from the optimization analysis revealed that the 2020 target won’t be achieved until 2026 at the earliest, six years late. Thus, the model suggested that a longer period may be needed to significantly reduce obesity in this population.

Systems science and systems thinking for public health: a systematic review of the field

“…Systems modelling is often treated as the area of systems work that holds the most promise for solving public health problems, and particularly, for policy. 9 12 13 33 77 Our review of the existing modelling in the field, to date, highlights cases of best practice, though it also suggests that a number of methodological weaknesses need to be addressed.…”

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status

“…However, despite the myriad of suggestions stemming from statistical approaches that studied this nutritional transition [ 5 , 6 , 18 ], the available research evaluating the SES-related obesity dynamic as a complex system is limited [ 19 ]. In addition, the previous studies that have investigated the dynamics of obesity and its associated features tend to adopt one of the following three frameworks: (i) system dynamics (SD) models, which have been employed to study body-weight regulation [ 20 – 23 ] or to understand obesity dynamics at the population-level [ 24 , 19 , 25 – 28 ]; (ii) network analyses (NA), which have been conducted to study the spread of obesity [ 29 ] or obesity-related behaviours in friendship networks [ 30 ]; and (iii) agent-based models (ABM), which have been implemented to explore the possible role of economic segregation in generating income disparities in relation to diet [ 31 ] or to assess the effect of the Bus Rapid Transit system on walking [ 32 ].…”

“…Similarly, Fallah-Fini et al [ 26 ] developed a population-level SD model that estimates the energy imbalance gap in the adult US population, by gender-race/ethnicity and BMI categories. More recently, Zainal Abidin et al [ 28 ] proposed an SD model that considers the interrelations among food intake, energy expenditure, physical measurement, and BMI in one complex human weight regulation system to simulate the effect of changes in the eating behaviour of British children on weight and obesity, by gender and into three age groups. However, to the best of our knowledge, only a few studies have applied a systemic approach to examine SES-related obesity dynamics.…”

Will colleges survive the storm of declining enrollments? A computational model

“…[44][45][46]) and health (e.g. [47,48]). Many universities worldwide offer courses and academic programs in system dynamics [49][50][51][52].…”