Collision risk estimation in terminal area airspace

Abstract

In order to estimate the collision risk in the process of airspace planning, a collision risk model based on distribution of initial time interval is proposed. In the collision risk model given some airspace planning parameters comprised of separation minimums, flight segment length, speeds of aircraft, the proportion of the aircraft type, flow rate, required navigation performance value, climb gradient or descend gradient are included. The influences of airspace planning parameters on collision risk can be characterized. The results show that vertical separation minimum have greater influences on the collision risk. A method to calculate the collision risk between intersecting flight tracks with planning parameters is developed. These would provide the method and theory to research the collision risk in the field of terminal airspace planning.

Collision risk estimation on parallel airways

“…Furthermore, we can have that the average number of aircraft pairs formed between one aircraft typed i on the airway K and the aircraft on the airway L in the time length 1 t is i NP . Thus, by the reference [13], when aircraft is flying on the airway K for an hour, the average number of collisions coming from the aircraft on the airway L can be expressed as…”

“…Some researches about the collision risk based on event model are given [10,11] . In virtue of the model in reference [2], Han songchen and Qu yuling researched the collision risk model of terminal area airspace and around intersection of airways based on arrival time interval [12,13] .…”

“…In contrast to the most exiting collision risk models which are mainly about the invariable nominal invariable, in this paper, the further research on collision risk based on the variable nominal invariable, time variable and initial time interval variable on parallel airways will be shown. Based on the references [2,12,13], this paper is intended for use by airspace planners as a basis for changing separation minima and presents a mathematical expression for the analysis of collision risk applicable to airspace planning parameters and lateral separation of aircraft on parallel airways.…”