Cold‐water species deepen to escape warm water temperatures

Chaikin, Shahar; Dubiner, Shahar; Belmaker, Jonathan

doi:10.1111/geb.13414

Cited by 25 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 102 publications

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“…Many deep‐sea ecosystems may soon experience oceanographic conditions with only distant spatial or temporal analogues. This can cause mobile species' distributions to move deeper toward cooler waters (Chaikin et al, 2021; Pinsky et al, 2013) and reorganization and compression of ecological communities (Chu & Tunnicliffe, 2015; Gasbarro et al, 2019; Mora et al, 2013; Sato et al, 2017). The temporal scales of ocean change make it less likely that slow‐growing sessile species will be able to track their climatic niche via larval dispersal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

Gasbarro

Sowers

Margolin

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. Lophelia pertusa, the main reef‐forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (>200 m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business‐as‐usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher‐resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi‐scale habitat suitability models for L. pertusa on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold‐water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of L. pertusa to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom‐contact fishing. Drastic reductions in L. pertusa climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (<~550 m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth‐driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC habitats and the critical ecosystem services they provide.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

Gasbarro

Sowers

Margolin

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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“…Pope et al, 2012). As well, species may respond to warmer waters by shifting with deepening isotherms (Chaikin et al, 2022; Davis et al, 2021), an aspect not captured in our models, though the depth of the photic layer presents a major constraint on this possibility for photosynthetic organisms (Jorda et al, 2020). The local extirpations projected here may therefore represent significant rearrangements of the benthos rather than true losses.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Bringloe

Wilkinson

Goldsmit

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards Librarians. WOA Institution: The University of Melbourne. Blended DEAL: CAUL 2022.temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

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“…This result is consistent with estimates that suggest that the range edges of marine species are generally, but not universally, changing with warming ocean water temperatures (Sunday et al 2012;Fredston et al 2021). In addition, there is evidence that some, but not all, marine species are shifting to deeper depths as conditions warm (Chaikin et al 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The robustness of SDMs depends on properly accounting for, and distinguishing, the influence of multiple environmental variables on species distributions. Most SDM models to date do not account for oxygen (e.g., Cheung et al 2009;Ready et al 2010;Morley et al 2018;Chaikin et al 2022), and in some cases, rely on sea surface temperature when modeling species that live on the seafloor (e.g., Ready et al 2010;García Molinos et al 2016). In addition, demersal marine communities (e.g., groundfish) are highly depth structured because of physiological limits to temperature, hydrostatic pressure (Brown & Thatje 2014), and hypoxia tolerance (Brown & Thatje 2015;Essington et al 2022), as well as light, competition, and food availability (Elith & Leathwick 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

Thompson

Nephin

Davies

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Projections of how climate change will impact marine species and communities are urgently needed to inform management measures aimed at stemming biodiversity loss. In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Most projections to date have focused on temperature, but have not accounted for the confounding influence of oxygen and depth and are limited by the spatial resolution of global climate models. Here, we combine fisheries independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 40 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (B.C.) and Washington. By leveraging coast-wide survey data, we quantify how temperature, oxygen, and depth jointly constrain the ranges of species. Then, using two high-resolution regional ocean-biogeochemical models, we make projections of biodiversity change at a high spatial resolution. Our projections suggest that, in B.C. and Washington, the number of species that are projected to decrease in occurrence is roughly balanced by the number that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (< 100 m) where warming will be greatest, increase at mid depths (100 - 600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and remain stable or decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (> 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen, and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity.

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Cold‐water species deepen to escape warm water temperatures

Cited by 25 publications

References 102 publications

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

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