Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Abstract

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th‐century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st‐century climate change constitutes a new—but so far unevaluated—threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high‐resolution topography and fine‐scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso‐ and microclimate scales. We show that climate‐only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th‐century destruction is evident—more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation—and 21st‐century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of a Cloud Forest Indicator Tree Species

“…In general, the results for D. angustifolia are in line with the patterns observed for some other species in the Araucaria Forest, which are found in lower altitudinal levels (Bergamin et al, 2019;Wilson et al, 2019;Marchioro et al, 2020). Climate changes predicted for this century will have a substantial impact on the whole forest formation, reducing the species climatic suitability area, which will tend to be restricted to places of higher altitude (Bergamin et al, 2019;Wilson et al, 2019;Marchioro et al, 2020). Given this critical scenario, there is an urgent need to undertake mitigation initiatives, such as in-situ (climate refuge protection) and ex-situ (germplasm banks) conservation strategies.…”

“…However, for species already restricted to areas of higher altitude, such as D. angustifolia, this strategy is not possible, which renders these species more susceptible to the impacts of climate change, like the upper-montane ecosystem itself. In general, the results for D. angustifolia are in line with the patterns observed for some other species in the Araucaria Forest, which are found in lower altitudinal levels (Bergamin et al, 2019;Wilson et al, 2019;Marchioro et al, 2020). Climate changes predicted for this century will have a substantial impact on the whole forest formation, reducing the species climatic suitability area, which will tend to be restricted to places of higher altitude (Bergamin et al, 2019;Wilson et al, 2019;Marchioro et al, 2020).…”

Crimes Ambientais Na Área Atendida Pela Polícia Militar Ambiental De Curitibanos, Santa Catarina / Environmental Crimes in the Area Served by the Environmental Military Police of Curitibanos, Santa Catarina

“…Dentre os ecossistemas que compõem esse bioma, a Floresta Ombrófila Mista (FOM) possui um histórico de intensa exploração madeireira, especialmente da espécie Araucaria angustifolia, ((Bertol.) Kuntze) a qual supriu a demanda de madeira do mercado interno e externo entre a 1ª e 2ª Guerra Mundial (BECKERT; ROSOT; ROSOT, 2014), sendo hoje, em função de diferentes eventos estressores, considerada como espécie criticamente ameaçada (WILSON;MARCHIORO;SANTOS;SIMINSKI, 2019).…”

Expected impacts of climate change on tree ferns distribution and diversity patterns in subtropical Atlantic Forest

“…Wilson et al 2019) and set up favorable conditions for some of Cyatheaceae species.Nonetheless, our results show that few Cyatheaceae species can expand their potential areas into the Semideciduous Forest, where there is a higher seasonality in precipitation than areas of Rainforest and eastern Mixed Forest (Oliveira-Filho et al 2015). The two species that increased their distribution, A. sternbergii and C. leucofolis, are restricted within the northeast areas of the subtropics, probably with few populations having an austral distribution.Cyathea phalerata, a common species in southern Brazil, is expected to lose distribution.…”