Cointégration et causalité entre développement touristique, croissance économique et réduction de la pauvreté : cas de Haïti

Abstract

Cette étude emploie la théorie de la cointégration d’Engels et Granger pour analyser les relations entre développement touristique, croissance économique et réduction de la pauvreté en Haïti. Elle permet de tirer des enseignements et déduire des implications sur les liens de causalité entre ces trois variables. Les résultats montrent que ces dernières sont cointégrées et qu’au seuil de 5%, les relations, d’une part entre croissance économique et développement touristique sont unidirectionnelles, c'est-à-dire que la croissance économique engendre du développement touristique en Haïti et non l’inverse. D’autre part, il existe également une relation unidirectionnelle entre réduction de la pauvreté et développement touristique. Autrement dit, la réduction de la pauvreté qui, souvent mais pas toujours dépend de la croissance économique se traduirait ici par du développement touristique et non l’inverse.<br>This study, using cointegration and causality tests, investigates the relationship among tourism development, economic expansion, and poverty reduction in Haïti. Empirical studies have shown that the three variables are cointegrated with a long-run stable relationship among the three. At 5% level, the causality tests suggest one-way Granger causal relation between economic growth and tourism development, and between poverty reduction and tourism development. On the other hand, the paper presents arguments in support of the proposition that poverty reduction as a source of tourism development, offers a convincing case for the use of policy instruments focused to drive a tourism-based economy

The Political Economy of Divided Islands

“…Tourism arrivals have seen a spectacular increase starting from the 1990s. (Meanwhile, Haiti has seen its tourist numbers fall -Dupont 2009.) The Dominican Republic today attracts some 14 per cent of the gross Caribbean tourism market; its tourist accommodation infrastructure has multiplied by 12 times in 24 years: from some 5,000 beds in 1980 to 60,000 in 2004, with a healthy mean annual bed occupancy rate of 75 per cent, and holding on well in spite of the recent recession (Pattullo 1996, Puerto Rico is the Place 2011).…”

Untitled

“…Based on Johansen (1988) test of cointegration and Granger test of causality (1988), Dupont (2009), explained that there is one-way direction between poverty reduction, economic growth and tourism development. It is the reduction of poverty and economic growth that are leading to tourism development and not the other way round.…”

The Blakeley Model applied to improving a tourist destination: An exploratory study. The case of Haiti

“…safety, poor customer services, lack of equipment (Séraphin, 2015a(Séraphin, , 2014Théodat, 2004;Dupont, 2004), it is clear that Haiti, the Haitians, their leaders and the different stakeholders of the tourism and hospitality sector, are resisting learning. It is therefore important to identify the blind spots:…”

“…As Dupont (2004) points out, it is the reduction of poverty in Haiti that is going to lead to the development of tourism and not the other way round. As for the tourists, it is important to convey to them knowledge and objectivity about Haiti, in order to develop emotions and feelings toward the destination.…”